中南半岛地缘综合风险评价与机制分析  

Assessment and mechanism analysis of the geo-integrated risk of Indochina Peninsula

作　　者：张芳芳 刘慧[1,2,3] 宋涛[1,2,3] 叶尔肯·吾扎提 ZHANG Fangfang;LIU Hui;SONG Tao;YEERKEN Wuzhati(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 [4]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2021年第6期1151-1162,共12页World Regional Studies

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010103);中国科学院国际合作局国际伙伴计划(131551KYSB20180042);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK1007);国家自然科学基金(41701138,4217011358)。

摘　　要：中南半岛是“一带一路”建设的重要区域。从政治、经济、社会和自然环境四个维度构建综合风险评价指标体系,采用AHP-模糊综合评价法对中南半岛及五个主要国家的综合风险及演变进行评估。研究结果表明:①中南半岛整体综合风险属于中等偏高风险,其中政治风险和经济风险较高。②中南半岛综合风险存在明显的空间分异,综合风险指数平均值由高至低依次为缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝、泰国和越南。③2012—2018年间,中南半岛五国综合风险整体较为平稳且呈现略微下降的趋势,其中政治风险和社会风险波动较大。④关键风险因子及作用机制在不同国家存在较大分异。最后,提出了不同国别的风险防范建议。The Indochina Peninsula is an important area for the construction of the "Belt and Road". The comprehensive risk assessment system is constructed from the four dimensions of politics, economy, society and natural environment. And then, the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to assess the comprehensive risk and evolution of the Indochina Peninsula and five major countries. The results show that:(1) The comprehensive risk of the Indochina Peninsula is a medium to high level risk, of which political and economic risks are relatively high.(2) There are obvious spatial differences of the comprehensive risk. The average value of the comprehensive risk(U) is Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam in order from high to low.(3) From 2012 to 2018, the overall political risks of the five countries were relatively stable and showed a slight downward trend, of which political and social risks fluctuated significantly.(4) The key risk factors and mechanisms of the five countries are different. Finally, suggestions for risk prevention in different countries are put forward.

关 键 词：风险评估 风险因子 作用机制 风险防范 中南半岛 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]