应用德尔菲法构建青年学生HIV感染风险评估指标体系  

Development of Risk Assessment Index System on HIV infection among young students based on Delphi method

作　　者：罗业飞 杜瑶瑶 徐慧芳[1,3] 陈韵聪 古羽舟[1] 蔡衍珊 韩志刚[1] 何蔚云 姚芷潞 梁清儿 刘方华 樊莉蕊 Luo Yefei;Du Yaoyao;Xu Huifang;Chen Yuncong;Gu Yuzhou;Cai Yanshan;Han Zhigang;He Weiyun;Yao Zhilu;Liang Qinger;Liu Fanghua;Fan Lirui(Department of AIDS Control and Prevention,Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 510440,China;School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080,China;Guangdong Association of STD&AIDS Prevention and Control,Guangzhou 511430,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部,510440 [2]中山大学公共卫生学院,广州510080 [3]广东省性病艾滋病防治协会,广州511430

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2021年第11期1918-1922,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10715004);国家自然科学基金(71774178,71974212);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2020A1515010737);广州市科技计划(201607010368);广州市卫生健康科技项目(20191A010042,20201A011053,20211A011056,20211A011049)。

摘　　要：目的构建青年学生HIV感染风险评估指标体系,为评估个体HIV感染风险和制定针对性防控措施提供参考依据。方法应用德尔菲法,选择19位专家经过3轮专家咨询,根据指标筛选标准并综合考虑专家建议,确定评估指标体系及其权重。结果3轮专家咨询的积极系数均为100%;专家的权威系数在0.887~0.945之间,协调系数(肯德尔和谐系数,Kendall's W)分别为0.379、0.329和0.248(均P<0.001),第3轮各项指标变异系数均<0.25,专家意见趋于一致,研究结果可靠性高。建立了7个一级指标和54个二级指标构成的青年学生HIV感染风险评估指标体系及相应权重。结论应用德尔菲法建立青年学生HIV感染风险评估指标体系,可用于开发青年学生HIV感染风险评估工具,进行个性化的预防干预,但其信度和效度及应用效果还需进一步的评估。Objective To develop a Risk Assessment Index System(RAIS)on HIV infection among young students based on Delphi method and to provide individual HIV infection risk assessment,targeted prevention and control measures.Methods Delphi method was applied to determine the index system and weight of the assessment tool through three rounds of expert consultation and overall consideration of opinions and suggestions from 19 experts.Results The positivity coefficients of three rounds of expert consultation were 100%.The authority coefficient of experts was between 0.887 and 0.945.The Kendall's W coefficients through first,second and third round specialist consultation was 0.379,0.329 and 0.248,respectively(all P<0.001).The coefficients of variation in the third round were all less than 0.25,indicating that experts'opinion tend to be consistent and the results are highly reliable.The HIV infection risk assessment index system among young students consisted of 7 first grade indices and 54 second grade indices,of which weight was calculated.Conclusions The RAIS on HIV infection for young students was initially established based on Delphi method,and could be used in the development of HIV infection risk assessment tools for personalized prevention and intervention among young students.However,the reliability,validity and effect of this assessment index system need to be further evaluated.

关 键 词：艾滋病病毒 风险评估 德尔菲法 青年学生 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]