城投债信用尺度与地方公债治理的市场逻辑  

Credit Scale of Municipal Investment Bonds and the Market Logic of Local Government Debt Governance

作　　者：徐军伟 毛捷[2] Xu Junwei;Mao Jie(Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing;University of International Business and Econormics,Beijing)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2021年第6期39-51,共13页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代下地方政府债务风险的新特征与监管研究”(项目编号:18ZDA097)。

摘　　要：文章立足市场机制视角审视地方融资平台公司的资产属性,发现城投债具有信用锚的作用——信用尺度效应,并表现为直接和间接两方面。文章利用融资平台新名单数据库(2006~2018年),借助双固定效应模型和中介效应模型,验证了上述发现:一是城投债直接刺激了融资平台非标债务的增加,每增加发行1元城投债会显著刺激当地非标债务增长5.6元;二是城投债主要借助非标债务作为中介渠道影响市场主体的信贷行为,每增加发行1元城投债能够间接带动当地市场信贷规模增加12元。2015年新《预算法》实施后,地方政府举债更加法治化、市场化,切断了城投债通过非标债务影响市场信贷规模的作用渠道。异质性分析发现,在资源禀赋和市场禀赋较差的区域,城投债信用尺度的间接效应更为明显。为此,需要建立系统观念,关注地方公债背后的市场逻辑,坚决避免金融市场将政府信用与企业信用混同,加快形成适应新发展阶段要求的地方公债治理体系。Focused on a review of the market mechanism,this paper analyzes the capital property of the local government financing vehicle(LGFV),and points out that the municipal investment bonds or MIBs issued by the LGFV should have the effect of credit scale,which includes direct and indirect ways.Using a new dataset of the LGFV from 2006 to 2018,they set up the fixed-effect model and mediating effect model to identify the effect aforementioned.First,the MIBs directly stimulate growth of the non-standard debt of the LGFV,i.e.one yuan more MIBs issued will lead to 5.6 yuan in increase of the non-standard debt.Second,the MIBs will influence indirectly the gross market credit through the non-standard debt.The gross market credit will grow by 12 yuan when issuing one yuan more MIBs.However,the 2015 new Budget Law changed the mechanism above.The law helps local governments borrow funds in a legal way,cutting the channel of the non-standard debt and eliminating the indirect effect of MIBs’credit scale.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the indirect effect of MIBs’credit scale is more significant in regions with few resources and lower market endowment.It is necessary to pay attention to the market logic behind local public debts with a systemic view,which will help us separate government credit from firm credit and accelerate formation of a high-quality system of local government debt governance in the new development stage.

关 键 词：城投债 信用尺度 地方公债治理 市场逻辑 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F832.39