基于现场删失数据的电能表可靠性评估方法及轮换策略研究  

Reliability evaluation method and replacement strategy of electricity meter based on field censored data

作　　者：董贤光 代燕杰 王婷婷 崔越 刘凯辛 Dong Xianguang;Dai Yanjie;Wang Tingting;Cui Yue;Liu Kaixin(Marketing Service Center(Metering Center),State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Ji’nan 250010,China;Zhongshi Yitong Group,Ji’nan 250000,China;Harbin University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]国网山东省电力公司营销服务中心(计量中心),济南250010 [2]山东中实易通集团有限公司,济南250000 [3]哈尔滨理工大学,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《电测与仪表》2021年第12期175-183,共9页Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61179024);山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2019MEE098);黑龙江省基础科研科技创新基金(KJCX201808);国网山东省电力公司科技项目(520626200022)。

摘　　要：国家电网有限公司单相智能电能表(2020)通用技术规范要求,电能表使用寿命提高至16年,即将服役到期的电能表运维规划问题成为该领域研究热点与难点。文中收集了智能电能表近两年的现场故障数据,提出左删失右截尾条件下基于Weibull分布和指数分布的电能表可靠性评估方法,利用似然比检验选择电能表最优寿命分布,借助极大似然估计和Fisher信息矩阵给出电能表可靠度、失效率、MTBF和可靠寿命的点估计与置信限。将可靠寿命作为电能表使用寿命的度量指标,结合电能表异步投入运行的工程背景,从轮换决策和延寿时间确定方法两个方面给出了电能表轮换对策,实验测试与分析验证了文章方法的有效性。研究成果对智能电能表运行和维护策略制定具有参考价值。The service life of smart electricity meters(SEMs)was improved to 16 years according to the general technical specification requirements of state grid single-phase smart electricity meter(2020),and the operation and maintenance planning of SEMs that are to expire in service in the near future has become a hot and difficult issue.Reliability evaluation method of smart meter was established based on Weibull distribution and exponential distribution using left and right censored data collected in two years,the optimal life distribution of electricity meter was selected through using the likelihood ratio detection,the point estimation and confidence bounds of model parameters were computed according to the maximum likelihood estimator and Fisher information matrix,and the confidence limits of reliability,failure rate,MTBF,and reliability life were given.the reliability life was employed to characterize the useful life of SEMs,combining the engineering background of asynchronous input,the replacement strategy was given from two aspects of replacement decision-making methods and prolong service lifetime determination methods for electricity meter replacement,and engineering example was employed to verify the effectiveness of the methods.The research results have reference value to the optimization of electricity meter operation and maintenance strategies.

关 键 词：电能表可靠性 左删失右截尾 轮换对策 置信限 延寿 可靠寿命 

分 类 号：TM341[电气工程—电机]