外债规模、经济增长与外汇储备  

External Debt Scale,Economic Growth and Foreign Exchange Reserves

作　　者：李文乐[1] LI Wenle(Xi'an Branch PBC,Shaanxi Xi'an 710075)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行西安分行,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《西部金融》2021年第9期43-52,共10页West China Finance

摘　　要：利用外债促进经济增长具有双重效应,外债规模与外汇储备存在密切联系。通过理论模型和现实解析结果表明,外债利用率与国内经济增长存在非对称的倒“U”形规律,适度的外债率应小于“极值点”,外债率过高有可能引发债务危机;外债规模与外汇储备存在正相关关系,外债规模犷大增加外汇储备,会“挤出”相应的基础货币;长期大规模利用外债在促进经济增长的同时,可能增加国内经济发展对境外资金和产业链的依赖性。当前要适度控制外债规模和严格审定投资方向,外债规模和外汇准备需保持协调性,外汇储备数量在合理区间保持相对的稳定性;实行稳健审慎的外汇管理,确保金融市场稳定,保持经济稳定增长。Analyze the internal logic of external debt scale and economic growth through theoretical model and reality.The results show that there is an asymmetrical inverted"U"shape trajectory between external debt and domestic economic growth.The moderate external debt rate should be less than the"extreme point",and excessive external debt rate may lead to debt crisis.There is a positive correlation between the scale of external debt and foreign exchange reserves.The expansion of external debt makes foreign exchange reserves increase relatively.The increase of foreign exchange reserves will"crowd out"the corresponding base money,and the scale of external debt and foreign exchange reserves need to maintain a relative balance.At present,China's economic growth model,which is mainly based on domestic economic cycle,the management of external debt should focus on the use efficiency of external debt and the direction of investment.The appropriate amount of foreign exchange reserves in China should take into full consideration the national conditions,ensure the long-term stability of the financial market,implement prudent and prudent foreign exchange management and realize the safety of foreign exchange reserves.

关 键 词：外债规模 经济增长 外汇储备 外汇管理 

分 类 号：F830.31[经济管理—金融学]