基于模糊层次分析的四川马颈子场泥石流危险性评价  

Risk Assessment of Debris Flow in Sichuan Horse Neck Field Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：李宏俊[1] 孙瑜[2] 焦骞骞 杨建桥 LI Hongjun;SUN Yu;JIAO Qianqian;YANG Jianqiao(School of Construction Engineering, Yunnan Land and Resources Vocational College, Kunming 650200, China;Sichuan Institute of Nudear Geology, Chengdu 610052, China;School of Land and Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China)

机构地区：[1]云南国土资源职业学院建设工程学院,云南昆明650200 [2]四川省核工业地质调查院,四川成都610052 [3]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《微型电脑应用》2021年第12期1-4,9,共5页Microcomputer Applications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41902086);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2020J0968)。

摘　　要：为了确保地质灾害场区人民的生命财产安全、正常生产和安全出行,对地质灾害危险性进行准确评价,从而减少地质灾害造成的危害是一项紧迫而艰巨的任务。以此为背景,基于泥石流的物源、气候、地形地貌等因素建立了泥石流的危险性评价模型,该模型以模糊层次分析法为理论基础,以四川马颈子场评估区内6条泥石流沟实际勘察测量值为输入,分析了评估区的泥石流松散物质储量、最大冲出量、流域面积等多个不同影响因子作用下的泥石流危险性的等级。结果表明,基于该评价模型的计算结果和实际情况一致,可以用该模型对场区内的泥石流进行预测和识别,从而有助于建立有效的防御和应对机制。In order to ensure the safety of people’s life and property,normal prodtction and safe travel,and to reduce the damage caused by geological disasters,it is an urgent and hard task to evaluate the danger accurately.In this paper,fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used as basic theory,six debris flows of Horse Neck Field are measured,and the data obtained are used as the input,we analyze the danger levels based on topography factors such as debris flow loose material reserves,maximum flow out,drainage area and so on.The restlts show that the calculation results based on the evaluation model are consistent with the actual situation,and the model can be used to predict and identify the debris flow in the field,thus contribute to the establishment of effective defense and response mechanisms.

关 键 词：泥石流危险度 模糊层次分析法 综合评价 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]