基于改进BN网络的突发社会安全事件风险评估与预警研究  

Research on Risk Assessment and Early Warning of Emergent Social Security Events Based on Improved BN Network

作　　者：潘迎丽[1] PAN Yingli(Ideological and Political Department,Xi'an Peihua University, Xi’an 710125, China)

机构地区：[1]西安培华学院思政部,陕西西安710125

出　　处：《微型电脑应用》2021年第12期48-51,共4页Microcomputer Applications

基　　金：首批陕西高校网络思想政治工作研究课题与实践项目(2021SPWSKT-C-61);陕西省思想政治工作重大理论与现实问题研究项目(Sz20120)。

摘　　要：为了在社会安全事件发生的不同阶段准确预估风险,调整应对策略以规避更大的危害,分析突发社会安全事件的特征与发展周期,结合风险形成的影响因子与处理原则提炼了三层风险评估指标体系,引入模糊集理论改进BN网络构建风险评估与预警模型。通过数据实证分析,模型预测发生概率为83%,具有很好的前瞻性,且通过反向推理获知影响概率TOP5指标,为后续规避风险源、完善管理机制指明了方向。In order to forecast risks in the different stages of social security incident accurately,adjust strategies to avoid greater harm,this paper analyzes the characteristics and the development of social security emergency period by combining with the risk formation of influence factors and principles of management of refining.A3-layer risk evaluation index system is established by introducing fuzzy set theory to improve BN network and build risk assessment and early warning model.Through the empirical analysis of the data,the prediction probability of the model is 83%,which is very forward-looking.The TOP5 indicators of influence probability are obtained through reverse reasoning,which points out the direction for avoiding risk sources and improving the management mechanism in the future.

关 键 词：社会安全事件 突发 风险评估 BN网络 

分 类 号：D631[政治法律—政治学] TP311.13[政治法律—中外政治制度]