不同航运模式下北极东北航道航运经济性评估  

Economic evaluation of various shipping modes via the Northeast Passage

作　　者：姜苗苗 胡麦秀[1] Jiang Miaomiao;Hu Maixiu(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《极地研究》2021年第4期577-590,共14页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(17BGJ059);教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助重大项目(20JHQ016)资助。

摘　　要：基于1991—2019年北极东北航道的海冰厚度和海冰密集度的监测数据,利用单航次航运成本和年利润这两个经济性指标,评估了4种不同航运模式下船舶航行于北极东北航道的航运经济性。评估结果表明:不仅不同的航运模式会对东北航道的航运经济性产生不同的影响,海冰的变化也会对其航运经济性产生明显的作用。在不考虑海冰年际变化的情况下,直达模式的航运经济性整体上高于转运模式,低冰级船的航运经济性整体上优于高冰级船;在考虑海冰年际变化的情况下,随着海冰状况的下降,东北航道的航运经济性明显提升,尤其是低冰级船的航运经济性的提升幅度更大。Based on the monitoring data of sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration of the Northeast Passage from 1991 to 2019,this paper evaluates the economics of shipping through the Northeast Passage under four shipping modes using two evaluation indicators—the shipping cost of a single voyage and annual profit.The results show that not only do different shipping modes have different effects on the shipping economics of the Northeast Passage,but the retreat of the sea ice also has obvious effects.Without taking into account the inter-annual variation of sea ice,the economic benefits of the direct mode are generally higher than that of the transshipment mode,while those of low-ice-class ships are generally better than those of high-ice-class ships.Considering the inter-annual variation of sea ice,and the decline of sea ice,the economics of shipping through the Northeast Passage has significantly improved,especially for low-ice-class ships.

关 键 词：北极 东北航道 航运模式 航运经济性 

分 类 号：U697[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]