碳达峰、碳中和约束下我国天然气发展策略研究  

China’s Natural Gas Development Strategy under the Constraints of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality

作　　者：刘合 梁坤[2] 张国生[2] 李志欣[2] 丁麟 苏健 朱世佳 葛苏[2] 刘婧瑶 Liu He;Liang Kun;Zhang Guosheng;Li Zhixin;Ding Lin;Su Jian;Zhu Shijia;Ge Su;Liu Jingyao(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,Shandong,China;Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580 [2]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2021年第6期33-42,共10页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(72088101);中国工程院咨询项目“能源战略(2035)”(2019-ZD-20)。

摘　　要：天然气是一种稳定、灵活的低碳化石能源,在供应端和消费端具有比较优势,可作为过渡能源为建设清洁低碳、安全高效的新型能源体系以及实现我国碳达峰、碳中和目标提供基础保障。当前,我国能源转型发展路径有多种方案设计,对天然气的发展前景也有着认识方面的显著差异。本文在科学分析碳达峰、碳中和目标两个阶段发展关系,面临挑战和坚持原则的基础上,深刻剖析了我国天然气的发展机遇,分析了在发电、交通运输、城市燃气、工业等重点领域的天然气比较优势;从终端价格、基础设施、价格机制、发展速度等方面总结了制约天然气发展的相关因素,针对性提出了我国天然气的发展目标。研究建议,强化顶层统筹引领,明确天然气发展定位与发展思路;充分发挥比较优势,推进天然气消费的跨越发展;合理利用国内国外两种资源,确保天然气充足可靠供应;推动基础设施建设,提升供应安全保障效率和水平;强化土地、财税、价格等政策和机制建设,促进天然气产业快速发展。Natural gas is a stable and flexible low-carbon fossil energy.It has comparative advantages on both supply and consumption sides.It can be used as a transitional energy for constructing a clean,low-carbon,safe,and efficient new energy system and for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Currently,China’s energy transition has many scheme designs.Huge differences exist in the development prospects of natural gas.In this study,we analyze the relationship,challenges,and principles of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Based on these analyses,we study the opportunities for natural gas development in China,explore the comparative advantages of natural gas in key areas such as power generation,transportation,city gas,and industry,and summarize the constraints in terms of terminal prices,infrastructure,pricing mechanism,and development speed.We also propose the development goals and key tasks of China’s natural gas.Finally,five recommendations are proposed for China’s natural gas development under the carbon goals.The first is to strengthen top-level coordination and leadership to clarify the development positioning and ideas of natural gas.The second is to maximize the comparative advantages to promote natural gas consumption.The third is to rationally use domestic and foreign resources to ensure sufficient and reliable supply.The fourth is to promote infrastructure construction to improve the supply efficiency.The fifth is to strengthen the policies and mechanisms for land,finance,taxation.

关 键 词：碳达峰 碳中和 能源转型 天然气 比较优势 

分 类 号：TE6[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程]