中国基本养老保险保障水平测量及其影响因素分析  

Measurement of Basic Endowment Insurance Level and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：韦邦荣[1] 冯芸 WEI Bangrong;FENG Yun(School of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei,Anhui 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《成都师范学院学报》2021年第11期100-109,共10页Journal of Chengdu Normal University

摘　　要：为了准确把握我国基本养老保险制度的保障水平,通过构建基本养老保险保障水平测量指标体系,以国内31个省、自治区、直辖市(简称“省份”)2010—2019年的面板数据为样本(香港、澳门、台湾数据未纳入),综合运用AHP法、熵值法和TOPSIS法对其进行测算,依据泰尔指数衡量基本养老保险保障水平的区域差异,并基于面板Tobit模型,探究影响基本养老保险保障水平的因素。研究发现:样本期间我国基本养老保险保障水平呈“倒U型”特征,东部地区保障水平高于中西部和全国平均水平;基本养老保险保障水平总体差异先缩小再扩大,分区域比较基本养老保险保障水平内部差异的结果为西部>东部>中部;人均GDP、产业结构、城镇化水平显著促进基本养老保险保障水平提高,人口老龄化和财政支出水平抑制保障水平提高。基于此,提出提高基本养老保险保障水平和缩小区域差异的建议。In order to accurately grasp the development and security level of China’s basic endowment insurance system,an index system of security level measurement of basic endowment insurance is constructed.By taking the panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities directly under the Central Government,and autonomous regions(Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan not included)in China from 2010 to 2019 as the sample,AHP method,entropy method and TOPSIS method are comprehensively used to calculate the security level.The regional differences of the security level of basic endowment insurance are measured according to Theil index.The influencing factors of the security level of basic endowment insurance are explored based on Tobit model.The results show that during the sample period,the security level of China’s basic endowment insurance presents an“inverted-U”shape,and the security level in the east region is higher than that in the central and west regions and the national average.The overall difference of the security level of basic endowment insurance first narrows and then expands.The differences of the security level of basic endowment insurance were compared by regions:the west>the east>the central.Per capita GDP,industrial structure,and urbanization significantly promote the improvement of the security level of basic endowment insurance,and population aging and level of financial support significantly inhibit the improvement of security level.Based on this,suggestions are put forward to improve the security level of basic endowment insurance and narrow the regional differences.

关 键 词：基本养老保险 保障水平 指标体系 泰尔指数 TOBIT模型 人口老龄化 社会保障体系 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]