不同AMDAR资料同化时间窗对台风“摩羯”预报影响研究  

Effect study of different AMDAR data assimilation time window to Typhoon Yagi

作　　者：盛春岩 刘诗军[1,2] 范苏丹 曲巧娜[1,2] 丁锋 朱文刚[1,2] 孙兴池 SHENG Chunyan;LIU Shijun;FAN Sudan;QU Qiaona;DING Feng;ZHU Wengang;SUN Xingchi(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031, China;Shandong Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Jinan 250031, China;Qingdao Bureau of Meteorology, Qingdao 266003, China;Shandong Meteorological Observatory, Jinan 250031, China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东济南250031 [2]山东省气象科学研究所,山东济南250031 [3]青岛市气象局,山东青岛266003 [4]山东省气象台,山东济南250031

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2021年第4期11-25,共15页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2020MD055);山东省重点研发计划项目(2016GSF120017);山东省气象局科研项目(2019sdqxz07,2018sdqxm10)。

摘　　要：2018年第14号台风“摩羯”对山东造成了大范围暴雨和大风天气,基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其Hybrid-3DVAR混合同化预报系统,对Hybrid-3DVAR不同集合协方差比例和不同航空气象数据转发(aircraft meteorological data relay,以下简称AMDAR)资料同化时间窗对台风“摩羯”预报的影响进行了数值研究。结果表明:加大集合协方差比例对台风“摩羯”路径预报有较大影响和改进;当全部取来自集合体的流依赖误差协方差时,预报的台风路径最好,降水预报也最接近实况;AMDAR资料同化对于台风路径和降水预报也有正的改进作用,但加大集合协方差比例到100%时对台风路径预报影响更大;不同资料同化时间窗会影响同化的AMDAR资料数量,从而影响台风降水精细化预报;45 min同化时间窗的要素预报误差最小,对台风造成的强降水精细特征预报最接近实况;不同资料同化时间窗主要影响台风降水预报落区分布,对台风路径预报影响相对较小。The 14th Typhoon Yagi in 2018 influenced Shandong with severe precipitation and gale wind.In this paper,numerical studies of the influences of different ensemble covariance weight and different AMDAR data assimilation time windows on the typhoon forecast are conducted based on the Hybrid-3DVAR system of WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)model.The results show that increasing ensemble covariance weight can improve the forecast of path of Typhoon Yagi.The path and precipitation forecasts are best when the ensemble covariance equals 100%.AMDAR data assimilation can improve the Yagi typhoon path and precipitation forecast,while 100%ensemble covariance Hybrid-3DVAR data assimilation can give further improvement.Different AMDAR data assimilation time windows can affect the assimilation data amount,thus influencing the fine feature forecast of precipitation.The 45 minutes assimilation time windows can give smallest errors of the analysis and forecast fields,and then can give the most satisfied precipitation forecast.Different AMDAR data assimilation time windows mainly affect the location of the forecasted rainfall and the improvement of the typhoon path forecast is limited.

关 键 词：Hybrid混合同化 集合协方差 资料同化时间窗 台风“摩羯” 预报影响 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]