气候变化条件下中国灌溉面积变化的产量效应  

Yield effects of irrigated acreage change under climate change in China

作　　者：李中赫 占车生[1,4] 胡实[3] 宁理科[1,4] 武兰芳[1,4] 郭海 Li Zhonghe;Zhan Chesheng;Hu Shi;Ning Like;Wu Lanfang;Guo Hai(Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Yucheng Comprehensive Experiment Station,Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,生态系统网络观测与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室,北京100101 [4]中国科学院禹城综合试验站,北京100101

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2021年第19期94-104,共11页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603702);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41971232)。

摘　　要：灌溉可以有效缓解气候变化对粮食生产的不利影响。采用中国不同区域2006-2019年实际灌溉用水量,对4个气候模式(GFDL-ESM2M,Had GEM2-ES,IPSL-CAM5-LR,MIROC5)驱动下的3种作物模型(GEPIC、PEPIC和LPJml)的灌溉用水量进行评估,优选模拟结果较好的前5个模式组合,分析RCP2.6和RCP6.0情景下,2021-2050年中国玉米、水稻、大豆和小麦产量变化,评估灌溉面积扩张的增产效应。结果显示:未来气候变化下,2021-2050年降水量的增加使得中国水稻和大豆以及北方地区玉米和小麦产量均呈现增长趋势,其中东北80%左右的地区和西北70%左右的地区玉米产量将提高0.2~0.8 t/hm^(2),东北85%左右的地区水稻和大豆增产幅度分别超过1.0、0.5 t/hm^(2),东北90%左右的地区和西北75%左右的地区小麦产量增幅分别介于1.0~2.0、0.5~1.0 t/hm^(2)之间。降水量的减少使得西南南部地区的玉米和小麦产量均下降0.2 t/hm^(2)左右。不同区域玉米和小麦的增产效应差异明显,由于北部地区光热条件较差、小麦基础产量较低,使得小麦灌溉增产潜力(1%~11%)以及增产效率((0.12±0.06)kg/m^(2))均较高,北部地区小麦的灌溉面积扩张可有效应对气候变化的不利影响。Irrigation of crops can effectively increase yields and reduce inter-annual fluctuations in yields, thus mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on food production. However, there are significant differences in climate among different regions of China, and water and soil resources are not balanced among regions of China. The degree to which increasing irrigation in different regions can alleviate the impact of climate change is unknown. Therefore, in this study, the yield datasets under different climate scenarios published by ISIMIP were used to study the yield increase effect of irrigation expansion in different regions of China. Firstly, the irrigation water consumption of three crop models(GEPIC, PEFIC and LPJml) driven by four climate models(GFDL-ESM2 M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CAM5-LR, MIROC5) was evaluated using the actual irrigation water consumption in different regions of China from 2006 to 2019. Secondly, the first five model combinations with better simulation results were selected according to the skill scores S1 and S2. Then, the ensemble mean of the first five combinations with better performance was carried out to analyze the yield changes of maize, rice, soybean and wheat in China from 2021 to 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios. Finally, the yield increase effect of irrigated area expansion under the assumption on the irrigation of rain-fed land in different areas was evaluated. The results showed that the increase of precipitation from 2021 to 2050 would increase the yield of rice and soybean, corn and wheat in northern China, among which about 80% of maize area in Northeast China and 70% of maize area in Northwest China would have the increasing of the maize yield by 0.2-0.8 t/hm^(2). About 85% of rice area and soybean area in Northeast and Northwest regions would have the increasing of the yield by 1.0 t/hm^(2)and 0.5 t/hm^(2), respectively. About 90% of wheat area in Northeast and 75% of wheat area in Northwest regions had the increasing of the by 1.0-2.0 t/hm^(2)and 0.5-1.0 t/hm^(2), r

关 键 词：灌溉 气候 模型 增产潜力 增产效率 

分 类 号：F325.27[经济管理—产业经济]