安徽省耕地安全压力与城镇化发展脱钩研究--基于组合赋权与Tapio脱钩模型  

On Decoupling Between Farmland Security Pressure and Urbanization Development in Anhui Province--Based on Model Combination Weighting and Tapio Decoupling

作　　者：刘超[1] Liu Chao(Anhui Business College,Wuhu 241002,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽商贸职业技术学院,安徽芜湖241002

出　　处：《黑河学院学报》2021年第11期60-63,共4页Journal of Heihe University

基　　金：2020年安徽省高校人文社会科学重点研究项目“安徽省城镇化与资源环境压力脱钩关系的变动过程、格局与机理”(SK2020A0827);2020年安徽商贸职业技术学院校级人文社科一般研究项目“安徽省耕地安全压力与城镇化发展的脱钩研究”(2020KYR02)。

摘　　要：安徽省城镇化发展与耕地安全压力涉及区域发展的基础性问题。构建城镇化与耕地安全压力水平的评价指标体系,运用AHP—熵值组合赋权方法,借助Tapio脱钩模型,计算综合发展指数及脱钩指数。结果表明,研究期内安徽省城镇化与耕地安全压力呈现四种脱钩状态:强脱钩(占53.85%)、弱脱钩(占24.08%)、扩张连接(占7.69%)、扩张负脱钩(占15.38%)。在2004—2008年间脱钩状态波动变化,2009—2014年多为强脱钩状态,2015—2018年脱钩状态波动变化,近年来的状态主要由耕地数量安全压力的上升与生态安全压力水平的波动驱动。Urbanization development and farmland security pressure in Anhui Province involve the basic issue of regional development.This paper constructs the evaluation index system of urbanization and the pressure level of farmland security,and calculates the comprehensive development index and the decoupling index by using the AHP-entropy combination weighting method and the Tapio decoupling model.According to the research results,there were four decoupling states between urbanization and farmland security pressure during the study period:strong decoupling(53.85%),weak decoupling(24.08%),expansion connection(7.69%)and expansion negative decoupling(15.38%).It is found that the decoupling state fl uctuated in the time duration from 2004 to 2008 and from 2015 to 2018;most of the years from 2009 to 2014 were marked by strong decoupling.In recent years,the decoupling state was mainly driven by the increase of the security pressure of cultivated land quantity and the fl uctuation of the pressure level of ecological security.

关 键 词：安徽省 城镇化 耕地安全 脱钩 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] F299