人口结构变化与社会经济发展  

Demographic change and socio-economic development

作　　者：赵耀辉[1] 杨翠红[2,3] 李善同 左学金[5] 钟甫宁[6] 方新[7] 王丰 张俊森[10] 李树茁 刘善仕[12] 李海峥[13] 方汉明[14,15] 张维[16] 李磊 张琴[16] ZHAO Yao-hui;YANG Cui-hong;LI Shan-tong;ZUO Xue-jin;ZHONG Fu-ning;FANG Xin;WANG Feng;ZHANG Jun-sen;LI Shu-zhuo;LIU Shan-shi;LI Hai-zheng;FANG Han-ming;ZHANG Wei;LI Lei;ZHANG Qin(National School of Development at Peking University,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Development Research Center of the State Council of the People's Republic of China,Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy,Beijing 100010,China;Institute of Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200025,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210032,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Department of Sociology,University of California,Irvine,Irvine CA 92697,America;School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Institute for Population and Development Research,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China;School of Business Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China;China Center Human Capital and Labor Market Research,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;Department of Economics,University of Pennsylvania,Philadelphia PA 19104,America;School of Entrepreneurship and Management,ShanghaiTech University,Shanghai 201210,China;College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院,北京100871 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [3]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [4]国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部,北京100010 [5]上海社会科学院经济研究所,上海200025 [6]南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京210032 [7]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049 [8]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,上海200433 [9]美国加州大学尔湾分校社会学系,尔湾CA 92697,美国 [10]浙江大学经济学院,杭州310058 [11]西安交通大学人口与发展研究所,西安710049 [12]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广州510641 [13]中央财经大学中国人力资本与劳动经济研究中心,北京100081 [14]宾夕法尼亚大学经济系,费城PA 19104,美国 [15]上海科技大学创业与管理学院,上海201210 [16]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2021年第8期154-162,共9页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助专项项目(71940001,71940007,71988101).

摘　　要：人口结构对于国家战略制定具有重要意义,人口结构变化深刻影响着经济增长模式、消费模式和中长期竞争力发展.揭示人口结构变化的影响因素、演化机理,研究其对全社会公共治理、商业模式等微观组织管理理论与实践的创新以及与经济社会发展的相互影响及变化规律等,具有重要的科学价值和实际意义.现阶段研究已在积极应对人口老龄化、改善教育公平与收入分配差距、人口跨区域流动等方面有了一定的成果.未来研究中,应继续关注人口结构的影响因素和演化机理、其对社会经济的影响、人口结构变迁下的公共治理政策研究,微观组织管理理论创新等问题.Demographic structure is of great importance for national strategy formulation.Demographic changes profoundly affect economic growth patterns,consumption patterns,and medium and long term competitiveness development.It is of great scientific value and practical significance to reveal the influencing factors and evolutionary mechanisms of demographic changes,and to study their impact on the innovation of micro-organizational management theories and practices such as public governance and business models of the whole society,as well as the interaction with economic and social development and the laws of change.At the present stage,the research has made certain achievements in actively coping with population aging,improving education equity and income distribution gap,and population mobility across regions.In future research,we should continue to focus on the influencing factors and evolutionary mechanisms of demographic structure,its impact on social economy,the study of public governance policies under demographic changes,and the innovation of micro-organizational management theories.

关 键 词：人口结构 社会经济发展 人口老龄化 公共治理 国家战略 

分 类 号：C924-2[社会学—人口学]