塔吉克斯坦为何不加入欧亚经济联盟?——基于与吉尔吉斯斯坦的比较  

Why Didn’t Tajikistan Join the EAEU?——A Comparison Study between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

作　　者：曾向红[1,2] 万天南 Zeng Xianghong;Wan Tiannan(Institute for Central Asian Studies,School of Politics and International Relations,Lanzhou University;the School of Politics and International Relations,Lanzhou University)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学中亚研究所,兰州730000 [2]兰州大学政治与国际关系学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《区域与全球发展》2021年第6期5-24,154,共21页Area Studies and Global Development

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“‘颜色革命’的发生、扩散与应对研究”(项目批准号:19BGJ051)的阶段性成果;兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(项目编号:21lzujbkyjd002、21lzujbkyjh002)的资助。

摘　　要：2015年1月1日,俄罗斯与哈萨克斯坦、白俄罗斯正式成立了欧亚经济联盟,并且吸纳了吉尔吉斯斯坦和亚美尼亚等国。独联体地区的小国往往难以拒绝俄罗斯的要求。然而,作为与吉尔吉斯斯坦在各方面都具有相似性的独联体小国,塔吉克斯坦却从该机制成立至今仍然没有加入。为什么俄罗斯没有强制塔吉克斯坦加入欧亚经济联盟?为什么吉尔吉斯斯坦加入欧亚经济联盟了,而塔吉克斯坦没有?本文认为,谈判霸权赋予了区域小国在与大国合作时的能动性,而是否加入欧亚经济联盟,取决于两国的政权稳定性和经济收益预期。吉尔吉斯斯坦在政治转型过程中出现的动荡局面导致其国家控制面临危机,因此,它急需俄罗斯提供的合作机会,以便缓和内部矛盾,维护其统治。而塔吉克斯坦在拉赫蒙的领导下政权相对稳定,因此有更大的余地争取更优待的入盟条件。On January 1, 2015, Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan formally established the Eurasian Economic Union(EAEU). In the same year, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia became its members. It is often difficult for the small countries in the CIS region to refuse Russia’s request due to the asymmetric power structure they’re in. However, Tajikistan, a small CIS country, similar to Kyrgyzstan in all respects, has not joined the EAEU. Why didn’t Russia force it to join? Why didn’t it join while Kyrgyzstan did? This paper argues that negotiation hegemony provides small regional countries with the initiative when they cooperate with major powers. Whether to join the EAEU depends on the political stability and economic expectations of the two countries. As Kyrgyz’s long-term political transition has led to political turmoil, there is an urgent need for it to grab the opportunity offered by Russia to appease internal conflicts and maintain its regime. However, Tajikistan, with its relatively stable regime under Rahmon’s rule, has more leeway to seek more favorable terms of EAEU membership from Russia.

关 键 词：欧亚经济联盟 吉尔吉斯斯坦 塔吉克斯坦 政权稳定 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]