理解国家行为:一个基于相对利益的国家效用函数  

Demystifying the Behavior of Nations: A National Utility Function Based on Relative Interests

作　　者：夏广涛 张宇燕[1,2] Xia Guangtao;Zhang Yuyan(the Institute of World Economie and Politics,CASS;the School of International Relation)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京100732 [2]中国社会科学院大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2021年第11期67-94,157,158,共30页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：面临世界百年未有之大变局,国家行为和国家间互动关系正发生深刻变化,国家在国际关系意义上的目标和效用呈现更加复杂多元的新特征。如何用科学方法准确地定义和衡量国家效用成为国际政治经济学领域一个亟待解决的重要问题。在此背景下,作者首先构建了一个基于相对利益的国家效用函数,阐述其基本性质和现实含义;随后建立短期策略选择模型,刻画国家在离散策略空间下的优化决策问题,剖析国家偏好不变情形下一国在短期的理性策略选择过程,并通过示例性的两国博弈问题论证“杀人一万、自损三千”式策略的合理性;最后构造包含三类不同国家偏好(“政治主导型偏好”“经济主导型偏好”和“平衡型偏好”)的长期战略决策模型,展现不同偏好下国家效用水平的动态变化,并通过设想的K国案例分析一国如何通过关键时期的战略转型来实现国家效用的全局优化。基于相对经济利益和相对政治利益构造一个统一的国家效用函数,有助于对新形势下的国家战略决策和大国博弈等重要问题进行较为严谨的定量分析和科学判断,优化国家在策略选择和战略转型中的决策过程。In the light of changes unseen in a century,the international relations are undergoing a series of profound changes,and the objective and utility of nations also exhibit new complex features.How to accurately define and measure national utility through scientifie methodology becomes one of the key issues in the field of interma-tional political economy.In this paper,we first construct a national utility function based on the relative national interests,and explain its basic characteristics and its practical implications.Then,we set up a short-run strategic decision-making model based on the national utility function to depict the optimization problem in a discrete strategic space,and decompose the decision-making process of short-run rational strate-gic choice with given national preferences.Through a two-country game,we rationalize the puzzing strategy of pursuing the kind of pyrrhie victories.Finally,we relax the as-sumption of fixed short-run national preferences,construct a long-run strategic decision-making model with three types of national preferences(politics dominated preference,economics dominated preference,and balanced preference)to ilustrate the dynamic variations of national utility under various preferences,and analyze the global optimiza-tion of national utility through strategic transition by a case study of a hypothetical country K.This rigorous quantitative analysis of national strategic decision making and game between hegemonies under the unified theoretical model proposed by this paper,would be conducive to the optimization process of short-run rational strategic choice and long-run strategic transition.

关 键 词：国家效用函数 相对利益 国家偏好 短期策略选择 长期战略决策 

分 类 号：D80[政治法律—政治学]