窗口预期与崛起国应对战略透支风险的启示  

Enlightenment of Window Expectations and the Risk of the Rising Powers'Strategic Overdrafts

作　　者：秦立志 Qin Lizhi(the School of International Studies,Dalian University of Foreign Languages.)

机构地区：[1]大连外国语大学国际关系学院,大连116044

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2021年第11期95-133,158,159,共41页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：关于崛起国面对战略透支风险时选择风险规避或风险承担的动因,作者提出了窗口预期这一核心研究变量,它同时涵盖对过去的历史类比经验、对现状的满意程度以及对未来前景的损益评估。窗口预期的形成机制包括战略动机、地缘政治地位、经济相互依赖和军事攻防平衡四要素。如果形成损失偏好的消极窗口预期,就会产生沉没成本、夸大威慑效果和"托克维尔悖论"的共同作用,进而强化风险承担决心,诱发螺旋模式的冲突升级,陷入"修昔底德陷阱"。如果形成收益偏好的积极窗口预期,则更可能导致风险规避,出现相对稳定的威慑模式,跨越"奥古斯都门槛"。风险规避和风险承担都只是应对策略而非实际结果,这源于国家间的战略互动具有高度不确定性。对1871-1914年的德国和1894-1941年的日本应对透支风险的选择动因分析验证了窗口预期的形成机制和战略影响:即使缺乏客观的进攻优势、没有明显的防御弱点,国家仍可能由于消极窗口预期选择风险承担。只有在大国战略关系中充分权衡己方观念和行为所造成的系统效应,实现理性与克制的决策,才能减少崛起进程中的战略透支风险。As to what motivates rising powers to choose risk aversion or risk taking in the face of strategic overdraft risk, I take window expectation as the core variable,which also covers historical analogy experience of the past,satisfaction with the current situation and profit and loss assessment of future prospects. The formation mechanism of window expectations includes four elements: strategic motivation,geopolitical status,economic interdependence,and military offensive and defensive balance. Once the negative window expectation of loss preference is formed, the combined effect of sunk cost,exaggerated deterrence effect and "Tocqueville paradox " will occur, and then will strengthen the determination of risk taking, induce spiral conflict escalation and fall into "Thucydides trap ". If positive window expectation of return preference is formed,risk aversion is more likely to occur,and a relatively stable deterrence model is to take shape,crossing the "Augustan threshold". Whether it appears risk aversion or risk taking is just a response strategy rather than an actual result,because it stems from the high degree of uncertainty in the strategic interaction between state actors.Through the analysis of the motivations of the Second German Empire from 1871 to1914 and the Japanese Empire from 1894 to 1941 to deal with the risk of overdrafts,it verified the formation mechanism and strategic influence of the window expectations.Even if the country lacks objective offensive advantages and has no obvious defensive weaknesses,it may still choose to take risks due to negative window expectations.Only by fully weighing the system effect caused by one’s own ideas and behaviors in the strategic relationship between great powers can rational and restrained decision be made to reduce the risk of strategic overdrafts in the process of rising up.

关 键 词：战略透支 窗口预期 风险承担 风险规避 崛起国 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]