大宗商品价格波动对经济运行的影响研究——基于安徽省的实证分析  

Study on the impact of commodity price fluctuation on economic operation——Empirical analysis based on Anhui Province

作　　者：刘健 胡贤海 闵中月 李敏 梅菁 郭嘉 

机构地区：[1]安徽省发展改革委 [2]安徽宏观经济社会发展研究院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2021年第8期42-49,共8页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：大宗商品价格剧烈波动会对物价水平造成较大冲击,在一定程度上影响经济运行的稳定。本文基于2011年1月至2021年6月安徽省月度数据,通过VAR模型,从大宗商品整体和分类品种影响角度分析价格冲击对安徽经济运行的影响,得出以下结论:从整体来看,大宗商品价格冲击对工业生产者价格冲击强度及贡献度相对较大,对于居民消费价格及GDP的冲击强度和贡献度相对较小。大宗商品价格上涨将阶段性推升工业生产者价格,但输入性通胀的风险总体可控;从分类品种影响来看,有色金属类大宗商品价格冲击对企业生产成本及产品价格影响相对较大,能源类大宗商品价格冲击对居民消费价格影响相对较大,钢铁类大宗商品对GDP的冲击强度及贡献度均较低。The sharp fluctuation of commodity prices will have a great impact on the price level and affect the stability of economic operation to a certain extent. Based on the monthly data of Anhui Province from January 2011 to June 2021, this paper analyzes the impact of price shock on the economic operation of Anhui from the perspective of commodities as a whole and individuals through VAR model, and draws the following conclusions: on the whole, the commodity price shock has a relatively large impact intensity and contribution to the price shock of industrial producers, The impact intensity and contribution to consumer prices and GDP are relatively small. The rise of commodity prices will push up industrial producer prices in stages, but the risk of imported inflation is generally controllable;From the individual perspective, the price shock of non-ferrous commodities has a relatively large impact on enterprise production costs and prices, the price shock of energy has a relatively large impact on consumer prices, and the impact intensity and contribution of steel to GDP are low.

关 键 词：大宗商品 价格传导机制 经济运行 中国大宗商品价格指数 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]