人口老龄化如何影响财政政策的有效性——基于经济扩张期和收缩期的比较研究  

How Population Aging Affects the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy——Based on a Comparative Study of Economic Expansion and Contraction Period

作　　者：罗美娟 龙腾 Luo Meijuan;Long Teng

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2021年第11期93-105,共13页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“新时代我国沿边区域开放空间格局优化与战略支撑研究”(71861034)。

摘　　要：劳动力年龄结构的老化会削弱财政刺激对经济的正向作用,那么人口老龄化怎样影响不同经济周期下财政政策的有效性?本文利用我国1999—2019年的宏观经济数据,将经济周期划分为扩张期和收缩期,通过实证发现,在经济扩张时期,人口老龄化对财政刺激效果的影响并不显著;在经济收缩时期,财政刺激效果随着人口年龄结构的老化而减弱。相对于非老龄化社会,政府的财政刺激对个人消费以及经济收缩期间私人投资和就业的正向效应,在老龄化社会中影响较弱。结果表明,在应对老龄化社会时,扩张性的财政政策需要政府保持更大的财政空间,结合实施其他的宏观经济政策,以允许在经济收缩时期,财政刺激能达到预期的政策目标。The aging of the labor structure will weaken the positive effect of fiscal stimulus on the economy.How does the aging of the population affect the effectiveness of fiscal policies in different economic cycles?This article uses my country’s macroeconomic data from 1999 to 2019 to divide the economic cycle into expansion and contraction periods.It is found through empirical evidence that in the period of economic expansion,the aging of the population does not have a significant impact on the fiscal stimulus effect;in the period of economic contraction,The effect of fiscal stimulus diminishes as the age structure of the population ages.Compared with a non-aging society,the positive effects of government fiscal stimulus on personal consumption and private investment and employment during the economic contraction are weaker in an aging society.The results show that,in response to an aging society,expansionary fiscal policies require the government to maintain greater fiscal space,combined with the implementation of other macroeconomic policies,to allow fiscal stimulus to achieve the expected policy goals during the economic contraction period.

关 键 词：老龄化 财政政策 经济周期 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学]