随机库水位作用下病险土石坝的失效概率研究  

Research on the Failure Probability of Dangerous Earth-rock Fill Dam under the Action of Random Reservoir Level

作　　者：李泽[1] 彭普 张小艳[2] 谭志华 LI Ze;PENG Pu;ZHANG Xiao-yan;TAN Zhi-hua(Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Faculty of Electric Power Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Yunnan Institute of Water&Hydropower Engineering Investigation,Design and Research,Kunming 650021,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学建筑工程学院,昆明650500 [2]昆明理工大学电力工程学院,昆明650500 [3]云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,昆明650021

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2021年第12期135-143,149,共10页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(12162018);昆明理工大学引进人才科研启动基金项目(KKSY201904006)。

摘　　要：我国现有3万多座病险土石坝,由于长期服役病险土石坝坝体材料的力学性能严重衰减、抗渗性能不能满足要求,存在较大的溃坝风险。病险土石坝的稳定性是一个与坝体材料抗剪强度和库水位相关的不确定性问题,传统的土石坝可靠度分析方法未全面考虑病险土石坝诸多不确定性因素,导致得到的失效概率与理论预期不相符。本文将上限定理、有限元离散技术、数学规划理论和蒙特卡洛方法结合起来,同时将病险土石坝坝体材料的抗剪强度参数和上游库水位作为随机变量,建立了病险土石坝可靠度分析的上限法随机规划模型,并编制了相应的计算程序。对云南某病险土石坝进行了计算分析,获得了设计工况和长期服役工况下土石坝失效概率随库水位的变化规律,研究成果为该病险土石坝的治理提供了理论依据。There are more than 30000 dangerous earth-rock dams in China.Due to long-term service,the mechanical properties of the material of the dangerous earth-rock dam are seriously attenuated and impermeability cannot meet the requirements.There is a greater risk of dam failure.The stability of a dangerous earth-rock dam is an uncertainty problem related to the shear strength of the dam material and the reservoir water level.The traditional reliability analysis method of earth-rock dams does not fully consider the many uncertain factors of the dangerous earth-rock dam,causing the probability of failure to be unable to match theoretical expectations.This paper combines the upper bound theorem,finite element discretization technology,mathematical programming theory with Monte Carlo method,and at the same time uses the shear parameters of the dangerous earth-rock dam material and the upstream reservoir water level as random variables to establish the reliability of the dangerous earth-rock dam.The upper limit method stochastic programming model is analyzed,and the corresponding calculation program is compiled.Finally,a dangerous earth-rock dam in Yunnan is calculated and analyzed,and the failure probability of the earth-rock dam under the design conditions and long-term service conditions is obtained.The research results provide a theoretical basis for the treatment of the dangerous earth-rock dam.

关 键 词：土石坝 可靠度 随机库水位 上限法 失效概率 

分 类 号：TU433[建筑科学—岩土工程]