后疫情时期新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济影响的量化模拟分析  

Quantitative Simulation Analysis of the Impact of COVID-19 on China's Economy in the Post-epidemic Period

作　　者：王建丰[1] 王伟丽 Wang Jianfeng;Wang Weili(Business School,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院,郑州450001

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2022年第1期86-93,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

摘　　要：本文着眼于后疫情时期新冠肺炎疫情爆发的不同阶段,运用全球贸易分析模型,从新冠大流行时疫情冲击我国经济的路径出发,评估后疫情时期新冠肺炎疫情与经济之间的权衡,分析后疫情时期疫情发展的不同规模对我国GDP、进出口贸易、贸易条件、福利以及部门产出的影响。研究发现:(1)在后疫情时期,疫情的长期持续小规模爆发对宏观经济的破坏效应更明显,若疫情长期内持续小规模流行,我国的GDP、进出口贸易、居民福利以及部门产出均受到明显冲击;(2)在后疫情时期,疫情的短期偶然性爆发并不会对我国的GDP、福利、贸易条件以及部门产出产生明显的负面冲击,这主要是经济发展韧性抵消了疫情的短期负向影响。This paper focuses on the different stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in the post-epidemic period,uses global trade analysis model,and evaluates the trade-offs between the COVID-19 outbreak and the economy in the post-epidemic period,starting from the path of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's economy.Analyze the impact of different scales of epidemic development on China's GDP,import and export trade,terms of trade,welfare and sectoral output in the post-epidemic period.The study finds that:(1)in the post-epidemic period,the long-term sustained small-scale outbreak of the epidemic has more obvious destructive effects on the macro economy.If the small-scale epidemic continues for a long time,China's GDP,import and export trade,welfare,and departmental output all have been significantly impacted;(2)in the post-epidemic period,the short-term accidental outbreak of the epidemic will not have a significant negative impact on China's GDP,welfare,terms of trade,and sector output.This is mainly because the resilience of economic development offsets the short-term negative impact of the epidemic.

关 键 词：GTAP 经济效应 后疫情时期 全球贸易分析模型 对外贸易 区域经济 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F812.0