中国对“一带一路”国家蔬菜出口效率和潜力研究  

Efficiency and Potential of China′s Vegetable Exports to‘Belt and Road’Countries

作　　者：高维新 全海恩 GAO Weixin;QUAN Haien(School of Economics,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang,Guangdong 524088)

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学经济学院,广东湛江524088

出　　处：《北方园艺》2021年第22期150-159,共10页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般资助项目(13BGJ027);广东省研究生示范课程建设资助项目(2019SFKC32);广东海洋大学2019年人文社科重点资助项目(2019-01)。

摘　　要：采用随机前沿引力模型,考察2010—2019年中国出口"一带一路"国家蔬菜贸易效率及影响因素,分析中国蔬菜出口的市场空间和贸易潜力。结果表明:中国对"一带一路"国家蔬菜出口贸易逐步增长,但出口产品结构、出口市场集中度较高。"一带一路"国家的经济规模和人口数量、中国的经济规模正向促进中国蔬菜出口,中国的人口数量和地理距离则起到抑制作用。政府效能、自贸协定、金融自由度会显著提升出口效率,而物流绩效、货币自由度和是否加入WTO会限制出口效率的提高。中国对"一带一路"国家出口蔬菜的平均贸易效率为0.51。其中,我国对东南亚国家蔬菜出口效率最高,尤其是越南、泰国、马来西亚等国;从贸易潜力看,对印度、俄罗斯和印度尼西亚等国的出口潜力较大。该研究补充了中国和"一带一路"国家蔬菜贸易的研究,对于充分挖掘短期和长期中国蔬菜出口贸易潜力,持续扩大中国蔬菜出口贸易,实现对外贸易互利共赢具有启示意义。Using the stochastic frontier gravity model,we investigated the efficiency and influencing factors of China′s vegetable exports to‘Belt and Road’countries from 2010 to 2019,and analyzed the market space and trade potential of China′s vegetable exports.The study found that China′s vegetable export trade to‘Belt and Road’countries was gradually growing,butthe export product structure and export market concentration was high.The economy and population size of the‘Belt and Road’countries,and the population size of China were significantly positively correlated with China′s vegetables exports,while China′s population size and geographical distance were significantly negatively correlated with the export of vegetables.Government efficiency,free trade agreement and financial freedom played a significant role in improving trade efficiency,while logistics performance,trade freedom and whether to join the WTO limit the improvement of trade efficiency.The average trade efficiency of Chinese vegetable exports to‘Belt and Road’countries was 0.51,China had the highest vegetable export efficiency to countries in southeast Asia,especially Vietnam,Thailand,Malaysia and other countries.In terms of trade potential,the export potential to countries like India,Russia and Indonesia was high.This study complemented the research on vegetable trade between China and‘Belt and Road’countries,which had implications for fully tapping the potential of short-and long-term Chinese vegetable export trade,and continuously expand China′s vegetable export trade,to realize mutual benefit and win-win in foreign trade was of enlightening significance.

关 键 词：“一带一路”国家 蔬菜出口贸易 随机前沿引力模型 出口效率 出口贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]