考虑滞后与削减效应的寒区混凝土坝变形预测预报模型  

Prediction model for deformation of concrete dams in cold regions considering hysteresis and reduction effects from environment

作　　者：陈波[1,2] 陈伟楠 龚学贤 何明明 CHEN Bo;CHEN Wei-nan;GONG Xue-xian;HE Ming-ming(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology,Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Reservoir Management Office of Xianghongdian,Luan 237335,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]响洪甸水库管理处,安徽六安237335

出　　处：《岩土工程学报》2021年第12期2315-2322,共8页Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52079049,51609074,51739003);中央高校基本科研业务费(B200202160);新疆维吾尔自治区水利科技专项(YF2020-05)。

摘　　要：受长期低温和冬季寒潮等不利环境影响,高纬度、高海拔严寒地区混凝土坝服役性态复杂,挖掘和解译大坝变形性态并开展准确预测难度巨大。引入时间滞后效应和幅值削减效应,分析了外界温度对坝体内部温度场的影响,构造等效模型统一了坝体已设和未设保温层两种情况的大坝内部温度场分析方法;提出采用瑞利分布构造滞后函数,以模拟寒区复杂温度荷载对大坝变形的影响,建立了考虑温度连续滞后效应和幅值削减效应的寒区混凝土坝变形预测预报模型,模型参数通过改进惯性权重的PSO算法完成寻优。仿真实例和工程实践表明:所提寒区混凝土坝坝体温度变化规律分析方法的成果合理,变形预测预报模型匹配寒区混凝土坝工作特点,复相关系数和剩余标准差优于传统模型,拟合效果更好,预测精度更高。Under the influences of the extreme temperature loads,the service behavior of concrete dams in cold regions with high latitude and high altitude is complex,so it is very difficult to excavate,interpret and accurately predict the deformation behavior of dams.The hysteresis and amplitude reduction effects are introduced to analyze the influences of the external temperature on the internal temperature field of the dam body,and an equivalent model is established to analyze the internal temperature field of the dam body with and without insulation layer.The influences of the complex extreme temperature loads on dam deformation in cold regions are simulated by Rayleigh distribution hysteresis effect function,and a prediction model for the deformation of concrete dams in cold regions is established cosidering continuous hysteresis and reduction effects from temperature.The model parameters are optimized by the PSO algorithm with improved inertia weight.The simulation examples and engineering practice show that the temperature variation law of concrete dam body in cold regions is reasonable.The proposed prediction model agrees with the working characteristics of concrete dams in cold regions and the complex correlation coefficient and residual standard deviation are superior to those by the traditional models,with better fitting effect and higher prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：严寒地区 混凝土坝 变形预测 大坝保温 滞后效应 优化算法 

分 类 号：TU43[建筑科学—岩土工程]