基于行为博弈的重大工程网络舆情传播机制研究  

Network Public Opinion Propagation Mechanism of Major Projects Based on Behavior Game Theory

作　　者：孙蕾 孙绍荣[2] Sun Lei;Sun Shaorong(Business Economics Department,Shanghai Business School,Shanghai 200235;Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093)

机构地区：[1]上海商学院商务经济学院,上海200235 [2]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《管理评论》2021年第10期185-194,共10页Management Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(21YJC630120);国家自然科学基金项目(71771151);上海市高水平地方高校建设项目(应用经济学)。

摘　　要：重大工程建设关乎国计民生,具有广泛及较高的公众关注度,舆情传播会给政府公信力与工程声誉带来消极的影响,也会减弱重大工程的社会效益,影响社会的稳定及区域经济的发展。基于网络群体的不同利益关切度建立了舆情传播模型,首先分析了在重大工程网络舆情传播中公众风险感知度与政府舆情处置行为选择之间的相互影响关系。其次主要研究了公众信任值考量下的政府决策行为及政府临界值管理模型,并得到了在不同网络舆情传播方向下政府选择采取积极处置措施的最优时间结点的计算方式。最后算例研究表明了模型的有效性。本研究为决策管理部门实现舆情信息的有效处置及化解舆情危机提供决策支持。Construction of major project attracts wide attention from the public as it bears heavily on national economy and people’s livelihood.Public opinion will have a negative impact on government credibility and project reputation.It will also weaken the social benefits of major projects and affect social stability and regional economic development.Based on the different interest concerns of network groups,a dissemination model of public opinion is established.Firstly,the interaction between public risk perception and the choice of government public opinion disposal behavior is analyzed.Secondly,the government decision-making behavior and the government critical value management model under the consideration of public trust value are studies,and a calculation model of optimal time node for the government to choose the positive disposal measures under different directions of public opinion dissemination is established.Finally,the validity of the model is proved through case study and this study provides decision support for decision-making management departments to effectively deal with public opinion information and resolve public opinion crisis.

关 键 词：重大工程 网络舆情传播 风险感知 行为选择 

分 类 号：C912.63[经济管理] G206[社会学]