金融发展、信贷结构与经济增长的实证分析——以新疆为例  

An Empirical Analysis of Financial Development,Credit Structure and Economic Growth A case of xinjiang

作　　者：刘遵乐[1,2] 吴文鑫 王倍倍 Liu Zunle;Wu Wenxin;Wang Beibei(Urumqi Central Sub-branch,the People’s Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行 [2]中国人民银行泉州市中心支行

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2021年第5期32-47,共16页Financial Development Review

基　　金：新疆自治区研究生科研创新项目:前瞻性泰勒规则下俄罗斯货币政策的影响因素分析(项目编号:XJ2020G243)的资助。

摘　　要：长期以来,以信贷为主的金融支持一直是新疆经济增长的重要支撑,但是经济与金融错配和失衡的问题一直存在,主要体现为金融资源分布不均衡、金融有效供给存在缺口、金融生态环境建设不完善等方面。本文从信贷资源配置视角入手,运用新疆十五个地州市的面板数据,采用门槛模型测算最优金融发展阈值,分析在不同经济增长阶段中信贷增长与劳动生产率的内在联系,进一步研究结构性信贷对经济增长的边际配置效率。结果显示:新疆大部分地州市均越过最优金融门槛值,民营企业、小微企业、制造业贷款增速对经济增长的影响为正。基于这一结论,本文认为当前新疆已经难以通过单一的信贷扩张来提高劳动生产率,应将金融资源集中于经济社会发展的薄弱环节,提升金融支持效率。同时结合新疆经济社会发展的阶段性特征以及未来的任务目标,为金融支持新疆经济增长提出对策建议。For a long time,Financial support based on credit has always been an important support for Xinjiang’s economic development.However,there has been a long-term mismatch and imbalance between the economy and finance,It is mainly reflected in the uneven distribution of financial resources,the existence of gaps in effective financial supply,and the imperfect construction of financial ecological environment.This article starts from the perspective of credit resource allocation,Using panel data from various cities in Xinjiang Province,The threshold model is used to calculate the optimal financial development threshold,And analyze the internal relationship between credit growth and labor productivity in different stages of economic development,Further study the marginal allocation efficiency of structured credit to economic development.The results show that,Most cities in Xinjiang have crossed the optimal financial threshold,and the growth rate of loans for private enterprises,small and micro enterprises,and manufacturing has a positive impact on economic growth.Based on this conclusion,This article believes that it is now difficult for Xinjiang to increase labor productivity through a single credit expansion,and that financial resources should be concentrated on the weak links of economic and social development to improve the efficiency of financial support.At the same time,combined with the phased characteristics of Xinjiang’s economic and social development and future mission goals,Put forward the countermeasure proposal for the Finance Support Xinjiang Economy Development.

关 键 词：新疆经济 金融支持 信贷配置 最优金融阈值 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学] F127