站场加热炉安全仪表系统失效概率分析与研究  

Failure Probability Analysis and Research of Safety Instrument System of Heating Furnace in Oiland Gas Field Stations

作　　者：祝新泰 马军鹏 王文彬 刘畑 梁昌晶 Zhu Xintai;Ma Junpeng;Wang Wenbin;Liu Tian;Liang Changjing(Wanxiang Technology Co.,Ltd.,Huai'an,Jiangsu 223001,China;Fire Brigade,PetroChina Huabei Oilfield Company,,Renqiu,Hebei 062552,China;Wangjiagou Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation Center,PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830023,China;Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation Branch,PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company,Changji,Xinjiang 831100,China;Huabei Petroleum Ganghua Survey Planning&Design Co.,Ltd.,Renqiu,Hebei 062552,China)

机构地区：[1]万香科技股份有限公司,江苏淮安223001 [2]中国石油华北油田分公司消防支队,河北任丘062552 [3]中国石油新疆油田分公司王家沟油气储运中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830023 [4]中国石油新疆油田分公司油气储运公司,新疆昌吉831100 [5]华北石油港华勘察规划设计有限公司,河北任丘062552

出　　处：《石油工业技术监督》2021年第12期36-41,共6页Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry

摘　　要：针对我国站场同类设备失效数据库不足的现象,通过对失效因素进行综合分析,建立故障树模型,在此基础上,结合层次分析法综合专家意见,利用模糊概率得到基本事件概率,对传统故障树的定量分析加以改进。以某个站场加热炉安全仪表系统为例,定性分析后得到了12个最小割集以及各基本事件的结构重要度,定量分析后加热炉安全连锁保护(燃气低压保护)失效概率为0.077 257,失效可能性等级中等,其中逻辑控制器PLC故障、压力变送器故障以及安全栅故障的重要度较高,定性分析与定量分析结果相符。研究结果可为站场设备的安全运行提供理论依据和实际参考。In view of the lack of failure database of similar equipment in station yards in China, a fault tree model is established through comprehensive analysis of failure factors. On this basis, combining analytic hierarchy process with expert opinions, the basic event probability is obtained by using fuzzy probability, and the traditional quantitative analysis of fault tree is improved. Taking the safety instrument system of heating furnace in a station yard as an example, after qualitative analysis, 12 minimal cut sets and the structural importance of each basic event are obtained. After quantitative analysis, the failure probability of heating furnace safety interlock protection(gas low pressure protection) is 0.077 257, and the failure possibility level is medium. Logic controller PLC fault, pressure transmitter fault and safety barrier fault are of high importance. The result of qualitative analysis is consistent with that of quantitative analysis.The research result can provide theoretical basis and practical reference for the safe operation of equipment in station yards.

关 键 词：油气田站场 失效概率 故障树 层次分析法 模糊概率 

分 类 号：TE974.7[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]