舰船延伸保修策略多方群体冲突交互式决策模型  

Construction of Multi Group Conflict Interactive Decision Model for Ship Extended Warranty Strategy

作　　者：王旋 孙世岩 李铁成 WANG Xuan;SUN Shi-yan;LI Tie-cheng(College of Weaponry Engineering,Naval University of Engineering,W uhan 430033,China;Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics,Naval University of Engineering,W uhan 430033,China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学兵器工程学院,武汉430033 [2]海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,武汉430033

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2021年第12期47-54,共8页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国家社科基金(17BJY028);海军工程大学自主立项基金资助项目(425317Q087,425417Q088)。

摘　　要：为推进海军舰船保修模式改革以促进舰船维修保障一体化发展,当前急需确定一种更匹配装备售后发展主流趋势与海军舰船采购制度的舰船保修策略。对当前海军舰船保修4种模式进行界定和优劣势分析,以确定海军舰船保修策略的调整方向,在界定了海军当前可以实施的32种保修策略的基础上,利用逻辑决断法判断当前海军可以实施的16种质保策略。重点利用基于交互式谈判解决多方群体利益冲突的方法建立了决策模型,以解决舰船延伸保修策略决策谈判中不可避免出现的多方利益冲突的问题,算例结果显示一维非更新预防性简单舰船延伸保修策略在多方群体决策中胜出,借助决策模型可分析出在群体决策中占据优势的要点。In order to promote the reform of naval ship warranty mode and promote the integrated development of ship maintenance and support,it is urgent to determine a ship warranty strategy which is more in line with the mainstream trend of naval equipment after-sales development and naval ship procurement system.First of all,it defines and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the four modes of our warship warranty,so as to determine the adjustment direction of our warship warrantystrategy.Secondly,it defines 32 warranty strategies that can be implemented in theory,and uses logical decision method to judge 16 warranty strategies that can be implemented by the Navy.It mainly uses the method of solving multi-party group conflict of interest based on interactive negotiation to establish a decision-making model to solve the problem of multi-party interest conflict in the negotiation of ship extended warranty strategy.The results of numerical examples show that the one-dimensional,non recalculating warranty period,preventive,single strategy ship extended warranty strategy wins in the multi-party group decision-making,with the help of decision-making model,the key points of winning in group decision-making can be analyzed.

关 键 词：舰船一体化维修 舰船保修策略 多方群体 利益冲突 交互式决策模型 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] TJ01[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]