基于IPTA的黄河流域天然月径流趋势分析  

Natural Runoff Trend Analysis of the Yellow River Basin Based on IPTA

作　　者：可灏 贾本有[2] 王文卓 段嘉程 KE Hao;JIA Benyou;WANG Wenzhuo;DUAN Jiacheng(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水文》2021年第6期18-25,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0404605);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51709178)。

摘　　要：近年有研究提出了一种新的趋势分析方法:创新多边形趋势分析法(IPTA),该方法具有简便、可视化的显著特点,已在国外得到应用。引入IPTA方法,对黄河流域天然月径流量进行了趋势分析。结果表明:黄河流域月天然径流量和月降雨量变化趋势密切相关,上游地区天然径流量在8~10月呈减小趋势,11、12月及次年1~4月总体稳定;中下游地区天然径流量在2~6月总体呈微弱增加趋势,8月~次年1月总体呈减小趋势。天然月径流量增减趋势的过渡、相邻月份径流量变化最大值和最大幅度与季节的过渡有一定联系,同时用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法进行对比分析,验证了IPTA方法的简便性和有效性。Recently,a new hydrological time series analysis method:Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis(IPTA)has been applied abroad.Natural monthly runoff time series data of 10 hydrological stations from upstream to downstream in the Yellow River are restored,the IPTA method introduced for trend analysis of the natural monthly runoff time series.Results show that the monthly natural runoff and monthly rainfall in the Yellow River Basin are closely related,the natural runoff in upstream area shows a decreasing trend from August to October,and the runoff of the following year is generally stable from November to December and from January to April.In the middle and lower reaches,the natural runoff shows a slight increase trend from February to June,while a generally decreasing trend from August to January of the following year.The transition of natural monthly runoff change trend in the Yellow River basin,the maximum and the maximum amplitude of the runoff change in adjacent months are related to the seasonal transition,and the simplicity and effectiveness of the IPTA method are verified.

关 键 词：气候变化 黄河流域 天然径流 趋势分析 IPTA 

分 类 号：P333.6[天文地球—水文科学]