基于Copula函数的珠江三角洲上游来水丰枯遭遇分析  

Copula-based Wetness-Dryness Encountering Analysis of Upstream Runoff in the Pearl River Delta

作　　者：张赵毅 何艳虎 林柱良 陈晓宏[4] ZHANG Zhaoyi;HE Yanhu;LIN Zhuliang;CHEN Xiaohong(Institute of Environmental&Ecological Engineering,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds,Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Software Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China;Water Resources and Environment Research Center,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学环境生态工程研究院,广东广州510006 [2]广东省流域水环境治理与水生态修复重点实验室,广东广州510006 [3]中山大学软件工程学院,广东珠海519082 [4]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275

出　　处：《人民珠江》2021年第12期30-41,共12页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51979043);广东省自然科学基金项目(2021A1515010723)。

摘　　要：对珠江主要支流西江、北江、东江在变化环境下的径流丰枯遭遇展开研究,有利于在枯水期进行水资源分配和调度,保障珠三角城市群供水安全;利用月平均流量作为基础数据,使用Copula函数构建了三江年、汛期和非汛期径流的二维及三维联合分布,并分析了三江的丰枯遭遇规律;结果表明,Frank Copula函数能较好地拟合二维与三维的径流联合分布;在二维丰枯组合下,三江两两间径流丰枯同步概率较大;在三维丰枯组合下,三江径流丰枯同步概率较低,三江在枯水年间更易出现“特枯-特枯-偏枯”和“特枯-偏枯-偏枯”的径流组合;在“特枯-特枯-偏枯”和“特枯-偏枯-偏枯”来水条件下,三江非汛期来水量较少,将会对珠三角城市群非汛期供水安全造成不利影响。Study on the wetness-dryness encountering of the main tributaries of the Pearl River(i.e.,the West River(WR),North River(NR)and East River(ER))under the changing environment,is conducive to the allocation and regulation of water resources in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)during the dry season to ensure the water supply security of the PRD city cluster.Based on the monthly average inflow of the WR,NR and ER,the Copula functions were used to construct the two-dimensional and three-dimensional joint distribution of the inflow of the three rivers at the annual,flood and dry period scales,and the laws of the wetness-dryness encountering of the three rivers were explored.The results show that the Frank Copula function can fit the two-dimensional and three-dimensional joint distribution of the upstream inflow better.The probability of synchronized wetness-dryness two-dimensional combinations of WR,NR and ER are higher when compared to that of the three-dimensional combination of wetness-dryness.The 3-dimensional wetness-dryness encounter combinations of“extreme dryness-extreme dryness-more dryness”and“extreme dryness-more dryness-more dryness”are more likely to happen in dry years.The upstream inflow under the 3-dimensional wetness-dryness encounter combinations of“extreme dryness-extreme dryness-more dryness”and“extreme dryness-more dryness-more dryness”are less during the dry season,which would pose greater challenge for the cities water supply in the PRD.

关 键 词：丰枯遭遇 COPULA函数 珠三角 

分 类 号：TV121.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]