农民种粮积极性激励政策的绩效及其主要影响因素实证研究  

An Empirical Study of the Performance and Main Influencing Factors of Incentive Policies for Farmers'Grain Growing Enthusiasm in China

作　　者：辛毅[1] 黄岳 徐紫嫣 XIN Yi;HUANG Yue;XU Ziyan(School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872;Bank insurance business department of Shenzhen Central Branch of Evergrande Life Insurance Co., Ltd, Shenzhen 518000,Guangdong)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [2]恒大人寿保险有限公司深圳中心支公司银保业务部,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第6期77-87,共11页Journal of Hebei Agricultural University (SOCIAL SCIENCES)

基　　金：北京市社科基金项目(编号:19YJB018)。

摘　　要：构建粮食播种面积的Nerlove模型和粮食亩产量的多元线性回归模型,对粮食最低收购价格政策和临时收储政策的绩效及其主要影响因素进行实证研究。指出现金收益是影响农民种粮积极性的关键正向因素,生产成本并非农民种粮积极性的主要影响因素。将农民获得持续增加的现金收益与粮食生产及出售数量紧密结合,是粮食最低收购价格政策和临时收储政策能够有效激励农民种粮积极性的根本原因,这也应当是今后涉及中国农民种粮积极性激励政策的重要原则。This paper constructs the Nerlove model of grain sowing area and the multiple linear regression model of grain yield per mu,making an empirical study on the performance and main influencing factors of grain minimum purchase price policy and temporary collection and storage policy.It points out that cash income is the key positive factor affecting farmers'grain growing enthusiasm,and production cost is not the main factor affecting farmers'grain growing enthusiasm.The fundamental reason why the minimum purchase price policy and the temporary purchase and storage policy can effectively stimulate farmers'enthusiasm for growing grain is to closely combine farmers'continuously increasing cash income with grain production and sales.This should also be an important principle for formulating incentive policy for farmers'enthusiasm for growing grain in China in the future.

关 键 词：农民 种粮积极性 政策 现金收益 影响因素 

分 类 号：F307[经济管理—产业经济]