前景理论视角下城中村村民更新意愿研究——基于广州市25村问卷调查  

Villagers’ Willingness to Urban Village Redevelopment from the Perspective of Prospect Theory:A Study Based on Questionnaire Survey of 25 Urban Villages in Guangzhou

作　　者：张理政 叶裕民[1] ZHANG Lizheng;YE Yumin

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2021年第12期19-26,共8页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代非户籍人口市民化的系统解决方案研究”(18ZDA082);北京卓越青年科学家项目(JJWZYJH01201910003010)。

摘　　要：村民更新意愿是城中村更新的首要因素,其本质是风险决策行为。借鉴前景理论,基于广州25个城中村的685份村民问卷数据,运用定序Logit模型对更新意愿的影响因素进行研究。结果表明:宅基地的确权能够显著提升更新意愿,而房屋层数对更新意愿具有负面影响,二者作为资产性因素发挥作用;村民对政府、市场与村集体的信任以及"村改居"情况对更新意愿具有促进作用,它们作为预期性因素产生影响;同时,村庄类型变量对宅基地确权情况发挥显著的调节效应。基于访谈结果,论文对影响因素的作用机制展开讨论,建议城中村更新对宅基地全面颁证确权,培育村民的正向信任,推广"村改居"政策,并对刚性村与弹性村分类施策。Villagers’ willingness to redevelopment is the primary factor determining the success or failure of urban village redevelopment, and its essence is a risk decision-making behavior. Based on the prospect theory and 685 questionnaires of 25 urban villages in Guangzhou, we quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of villagers’ willingness by using Multivariate Ordered Logit Model. The results indicate that the confirmation of homesteads can promote villagers’ willingness, while the number of house floors reduce them, and they can be called asset factors. The trust to government, market and village collective, as well as the transformation from village to urban community have significant positive effects on villagers’ willingness, and they can be called expected factors. At the same time, the village type has a significant moderating effect. Based on interviews, the influencing mechanism is discussed. Some policy suggestions are recommended: fully register and certify legal homesteads;build and enhance the social trust of the villagers;transform more urban villages from village to urban community;respectively treat inflexible villages and flexible villages.

关 键 词：村民意愿 城中村更新 影响因素 广州市 前景理论 

分 类 号：C912.81[经济管理]