基于灰色理论的智能电表加速退化机理一致性分析  

Consistency analysis of accelerated degradation mechanism of smart meter based on grey theory

作　　者：吴正茂[1] 李思海[1] 吴勇[1] 夏爽[1] 孙云莲[2] WU Zhengmao;LI Sihai;WU Yong;XIA Shuang;SUN Yunlian(Sanya Aviation&Tourism College,Sanya 572000,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]三亚航空旅游职业学院,海南三亚572000 [2]武汉大学电气与自动化学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2021年第11期1070-1076,共7页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金面上项目(编号:20166236);海南省自然科学基金青年基金项目(编号:620QN288)。

摘　　要：通过加速试验评估电能表寿命的一个重要问题是如何选取加速应力,加速应力选取不当会造成预计结果与实际情况有偏差。对现有的加速退化机理一致性判定方法进行了综合比较,分析了其存在的局限性,提出了利用灰色理论中的预测方法来确定失效机理的一致性。首先对灰色预测模型(grey model,GM)以及等维新息模型进行阐述,然后给出了基于GM(1,1)的加速机理一致性判定流程以及方法,最后利用等维新息预测方法对智能电能表的强化数据进行加速退化机理一致性判定分析,并验证了此方法的正确性。It is an important problem to choose acceleration stress to evaluate the life of electricity meter through acceleration test.Improper selection of acceleration stress will cause deviation between the expected result and the actual situation.In this paper,the existing methods for determining the consistency of accelerated degradation mechanism are compared and their limitations are analyzed,and the prediction method in grey theory is proposed to determine the consistency of failure mechanism.Firstly,the grey forecasting model(GM) and equal dimension information model are described. Secondly, the consistency judgment process and method of acceleration mechanism based on GM(1, 1) are given.Finally, the consistency judgment analysis of accelerated degradation mechanism is carried out on the enhanced data of smart electricity meters by using the equal-dimensional new information prediction method,and the correctness of this method is verified.

关 键 词：灰色预测 退化机理一致性 灰色预测模型 等维新息 智能电能表 强化试验 

分 类 号：TM933.4[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]