居民家庭“加杠杆”、消费升级与经济平稳增长——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的传导机制与时变冲击检验  

Household Leverage,Consumption Upgrading and Stable Economic Growth:the Transmission Mechanism and Time-Varying Impact Test Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

作　　者：彭薇[1] PENG Wei(Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai,Zhuhai 519087,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学人文和社会科学高等研究院,广东珠海519087

出　　处：《江西财经大学学报》2021年第6期37-48,共12页Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“供给侧结构性改革视角下我国产业创新对消费升级的影响研究”(19YJC790099)。

摘　　要：基于随机波动时变向量自回归(TVP-SV-VAR)模型,采用2002年至2019年宏观经济数据,探讨居民部门杠杆率、消费升级及经济平稳增长之间的动态传导机制与时变冲击。研究发现:第一,我国居民部门杠杆率、居民消费支出及经济增长之间存在交互影响,在不同时点影响程度和作用方向均有所不同,表现为时变和异质性特征;第二,从变量同期影响来看,居民部门杠杆率提高对当期消费升级产生了负向冲击,对当期经济平稳增长产生了正向冲击;第三,从等间隔脉冲响应来看,居民部门杠杆率变化对消费升级的传递作用经历了“先降后升”的变化过程,对经济平稳增长的传递经历了“先升后降”的变化过程;第四,从特定时点脉冲响应来看,三个特定时点中居民家庭“加杠杆”未能有效促进消费升级,中长期房贷“挤出”了消费支出,但随着供给侧结构性改革的推进这种负向影响逐渐减弱。这也对通过“结构性去杠杆”实现“促消费”与“稳增长”向纵深推进提出了更高要求。Based on the TVP-SV-VAR model and the macroeconomic data from 2002 to 2019,this paper explores the dynamic transmission mechanism and the time-varying impact among the leverage ratio of the residential sector,the consumption upgrading and the stable economic growth.The results show that,firstly,there exists an interactive impact among the leverage ratio of the residential sector,the consumption upgrading and the stable economic growth,the degrees and the direction of the impact are different at different time point,showing the time-varying and heterogeneous characteristics.Secondly,in terms of the impact in the same period of the variables,the increase of the leverage rate of residential sector has a negative impact on the current consumption upgrading,and a positive impact on the current stable economic growth.Thirdly,in terms of the evenly-spaced impulse response,the transmission effect of residents’leverage rate changes on the consumption upgrading has experienced a changing process of“first decease and then increase”,while the transmission effect on the stable economic growth has experienced a changing process of“first increase and then decrease”.Fourthly,in terms of the impulse response at specific time points,the household leverage at the specific time-points has not been able to effectively promote the consumption upgrading,and the medium and long term house loans have“squeezed out”the consumption expenditures.But with the promotion of the supply side structural reform,this negative impact will be gradually weakened.This also puts forward higher requirements for the in-depth promotion of“promoting consumption”and“stabilizing growth”through“the structural deleveraging”.

关 键 词：居民家庭 加杠杆 消费升级 经济平稳增长 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]