民众创业对农村多维贫困的非线性动态影响——基于动态门限回归模型  

The Nonlinear Dynamic Impact of Mass Entrepreneurship on Rural Multidimensional Poverty:Based on the Dynamic Threshold Regression Model

作　　者：平卫英[1] 宗潇泳 PING Wei-ying;ZONG Xiao-yong(Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学统计学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《江西财经大学学报》2021年第6期75-87,共13页Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“贫困退出考核评估的统计测度研究”(17ZDA094);国家社会科学基金重大项目“后扶贫时代中国城乡相对贫困统计测度与治理机制研究”(20&ZD131)。

摘　　要：民众创业不仅是农村减贫的重要途径,同时也是当前各级政府部门积极鼓励的农民增收措施。基于中国省级面板数据,检验民众创业对农村多维贫困(收入、教育与医疗贫困)的影响。研究结论表明:民众创业对中国各省份的农村多维贫困存在显著的动态非线性影响效应。其中在普惠金融发展水平和市场化程度较低阶段,民众创业对农村多维贫困的削减作用较弱,甚至出现个别指标不显著。但突破门限值达到较高阶段后,民众创业对农村收入贫困、教育贫困的削减效应均显著增强。但在市场化程度的高区制,民众创业通过促进城镇医疗机构的发展,“挤出”农村医疗设施,加剧了农村医疗贫困。进一步发现生存型创业比机会型创业有更低门限值,且机会型创业对农村多维贫困的影响作用更突出。政府部门应采取政策引导、金融支持等多种措施鼓励民众创业,尤其是鼓励机会型创业,以发挥民众创业的减贫效应,这能较好地降低农村多维贫困程度并提升农村居民的生活水平。Mass entrepreneurship is an important way to reduce rural poverty;at the same time it is also the measure taken by the government departments at different levels to encourage farmers to increase their income.By making use of China’s provincial panel data,this paper checks the impact of mass entrepreneurship on the multidimensional rural poverty(the poverty from income,education and medical treatment).The results show that mass entrepreneurship has a significant dynamic nonlinear effect on the rural multidimensional poverty of China’s provinces,of which the inclusive financial development level and the marketization?degree are at a lower level.The role of mass entrepreneurship in reducing multidimensional rural poverty is weaker,even some indicators are not significant.But once the threshold value is breached and reaches a higher stage,the reduction effect of mass entrepreneurship on rural income poverty and education poverty will be significantly enhanced.However,in the regions with higher marketization degree,mass entrepreneurship has“squeezed out”rural medical facilities by promoting the development of urban medical institutions,which exacerbates rural medical poverty.

关 键 词：民众创业 农村多维贫困 普惠金融 

分 类 号：F325.15[经济管理—产业经济]