全球花生生产和贸易的时空动态变化研究  

Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Global Peanut Production and Trade

作　　者：冯喜梅 聂江文 彭良斌 臧华栋 杨亚东 曾昭海 FENG Xi-mei;NIE Jiang-wen;PENG Liang-bin;ZANG Hua-dong;YANG Ya-dong;ZENG Zhao-hai(College of Agronomy and Biotechnology,China Agricultural University/Key Lab.of Farming System,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学院/农业农村部农作制度重点实验室,北京100193

出　　处：《花生学报》2021年第4期1-8,共8页Journal of Peanut Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31671640)。

摘　　要：明确全球花生生产和贸易的时空变化对我国花生产业发展有重要指导意义。本研究用线性回归模型、集中度指数和优势指数对1961-2019年全球花生收获面积、单产、总产和进出口数据进行分析。结果表明:自1961年,全球花生生产和贸易规模持续扩大。中国、印度、尼日利亚、美国和苏丹是主产国,其总产占全球的70%,其中美国和印度相较中国分别具有效率和规模优势。全球花生出口竞争激烈,近年中国出口量全球占比下降;进口重心分散,中国进口量跃居全球第一。全球花生总产的增加将由依靠面积扩大转向单产提升。我国花生生产与全球主要生产国相比具有一定的效率和规模优势,但仍应加强研发提升单产并发展规模化、机械化生产,提高资源利用率以满足不断增长的国内消费需求并提升国际竞争力。Clarifying the spatio-temporal dynamics of global peanut production and trade is essential to the development of China’s peanut industry.Global peanut harvest area,yield,total yield and export-import quantity data from 1961 to 2019 were analyzed in this study using linear regression model,concentration index and dominance index.The results showed that:since 1961,the global peanut production and trade scale continued to expand.China,India,Nigeria,USA and Sudan were the main producing countries,accounting for 70%of the world’s total yield.Compared with China,USA and India had the advantages of efficiency and scale respectively.The global peanut export competition was fierce,and the proportion of China’s export quantity in the world has declined in recent years.The import center was scattered,and China’s import quantity ranked first in the world.The increase of global peanut total yield is shifting from relying on area expansion to yield increase.China’s peanut production has certain efficiency and scale advantages compared with the main producing countries,but it is still necessary to strengthen research to improve yield,develop large-scale and mechanized production,and increase resource utilization rate to meet the growing domestic consumption demand and enhance the international competitiveness.

关 键 词：花生生产 进出口贸易 集中度指数 优势指数 时空变化 

分 类 号：S565.2[农业科学—作物学] F746.2[经济管理—国际贸易]