中国柴油市场格局演变及趋势  

The Evolution and Trend of China’s Diesel Market Pattern

作　　者：韩冰[1] 丁少恒[2] 原诺亚 HAN Bing;DING Shaoheng;YUAN Nuoya(PetroChina Marketing Company;PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute;PetroChina Northwest Marketing Company)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司销售分公司,北京市东城区100007 [2]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院 [3]中国石油天然气股份有限公司西北销售公司

出　　处：《油气与新能源》2021年第6期15-18,共4页Petroleum and new energy

摘　　要：中国柴油市场正朝着资源主体分散化、低价竞争无序化、销售渠道隐性化、市场规模缩小化的格局演变。从宏观层面和微观视角入手,通过科学严谨的量化研究,得出民营炼厂资源竞争力增强、非标柴油以低价抢占市场、销售新业态分流传统渠道和替代燃料发展迅速是造成柴油市场格局变化的主因。在准确把握各因素发展方向的基础上,研判未来数年市场格局变化趋势:短期内将有利于缓解低价竞争无序化的局面;但长期来看,在柴油需求逐步萎缩的总体趋势下,柴油资源明显过剩、资源主体分散化、销售渠道隐性化的趋势将进一步加强。最后,结合柴油市场格局演变趋势,提出了相关行业建议。The diesel market in China is evolving towards the pattern of decentralized resource entity,disordered low price competition,concealed sales channel and shrinking market scale.This author of this article,from the macro perspective and micro perspective,concludes that the major reasons behind the changes of China’s diesel market pattern lie in the increased resource competitiveness of private refineries,non-standard diesel’s domination of the market at low prices,the new industry types of sales affecting traditional channels and the rapid development of alternative fuel by way of scientific and rigorous quantitative research.On the basis of the accurate understanding of various factors,the author studies and predicts the trend of the market pattern shift in the upcoming years:it may help ease the disordered competition of low price in the short-term;in the long run,however,considering the general trend of diesel demand gradually shrinking,the trend featuring obvious excess of diesel resource,decentralized entity as well as the hidden sales channel will be further strengthened.Finally,the relevant industrial suggestions are proposed herein combining with the evolution trend of China’s diesel market pattern.

关 键 词：格局 趋势 地炼 非标柴油 替代燃料 行业监管 

分 类 号：TE-9[石油与天然气工程]