时间加密探空观测对分析和预报质量的敏感性研究  

Study on sensitivity of intensive temporal radiosonde observations to analysis and forecast quality

作　　者：原榕 何佩仪 马旭林[1] 郭启云[3] YUAN Rong;HE Peiyi;MA Xulin;GUO Qiyun(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education (KLME),Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Southwest Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of Civil Aviation Administration of China,Chengdu 610202;Meteorological Observation Center of CMA,Beijing100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]中国民航西南地区空中交通管理局气象中心,四川成都610202 [3]中国气象局气象探测中心,北京100086

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2021年第6期909-917,共9页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41275111,91437113);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506702)。

摘　　要：探空观测是气象资料同化中最基本的常规观测资料,对同化分析和预报的有效改善具有重要作用。由于现有探空观测站的空间分辨率较低,分布不均匀,且每日仅有两次观测,数量偏少,限制了其分析场对中小尺度大气状态的准确再现能力。自我国L波段雷达-数字探空仪更新换代以来,探空观测具备了获取每日4次、垂直分辨为秒级和分钟级的大气廓线资料。本文利用WRF中尺度数值模式,通过06时(世界时,下同)加密探空资料和12时常规探空资料的有效同化,研究分析了时间加密探空观测资料对同化分析和预报质量的敏感性影响。结果表明:同化06时的时间加密探空资料的午后暴雨预报质量优于12时常规探空观测。具体而言,同化06时的时间加密探空资料预报的大雨和暴雨的预报技巧高于12时常规探空资料;位势高度、温度和风场等预报场的均方根误差在高层的改进效果更加明显;06时的时间加密探空资料的同化对高层的高空急流和低层的水汽通量散度的预报质量贡献更大。批量试验进一步证实了有效同化时间加密探空资料对分析和数值预报效果改进的积极意义。The radiosonde data is the most basic routine observation data in meteorological data assimilation and plays an important role in the effective improvement of assimilation analysis and forecast.Due to the low spatial resolution and uneven distribution of the existing radiosonde stations,only two observations per day and the small quantity,the accurate reproduction ability of their analysis field to the small and medium-sized atmospheric state is limited.After the L-band radar-digital radiosonde in our country has been updated,the radiosonde observation could obtain the atmospheric profile data 4 times a day with second-level and minute-level vertical resolution.In this paper,the WRF mesoscale numerical model is used to analyzethe sensitivity of intensive temporal radiosonde observationdata to the assimilation analysis and forecast quality through the effective assimilation of 06 UTC intensive radiosonde data and 12 UTC conventional radiosonde data.The results show that:the quality of afternoon rainstorm forecast by assimilating 06 UTC intensive radiosonde data is better than that of 12 UTC conventional radiosonde data.To be specific,the forecast skill of heavy rain and rainstorm by assimilating 06 UTC intensive radiosonde data are more accurate than by assimilating 12 UTC conventional radiosonde data.The root mean square error of prediction fields such as geopotential height,temperature and wind field is more effective at higher levels.The assimilation of the intensive radiosonde data at 06 UTC contributes more to the forecast quality of upper-level jet stream and lower-level water vapor flux divergence.Batch tests further confirm that assimilating 06 UTC intensive radiosonde data is of positive significance for both analysis fields and numerical forecasting.

关 键 词：数值模拟 资料同化 探空资料 加密观测 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：P41[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]