中超联赛主客场球队技战术表现与比赛结果的关联研究  

Relationship between Technique Tactics Performance and the Match Result of Home and Away Team in Chinese Football Association Super League and Away Team in Chinese Football Association Super League

作　　者：姜哲 师荣霞 周彤 任德生 韩龙杰 蔡诚 JIANG Zhe;SHI Rong-xia;ZHOU Tong;REN De-sheng;HAN Long-jie;CAI Cheng(Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;Fujian Sports Vocational and Technical College,Fuzhou 350117,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学,福建福州350117 [2]福建体育职业技术学院,福建福州350003

出　　处：《福建体育科技》2021年第6期48-52,共5页Fujian Sports Science and Technology

基　　金：福建省教育厅A类一般项目:基于大数据我国职业足球跑动表现特征研究(JAS19060);教育部人文社科青年项目:基于PAP效应的我国中学生身体素质发展理论与实践研究(21YJC890050)。

摘　　要：以2015和2016赛季中超比赛为样本(N=480),运用方差分析和判别模型分析,分别对主场、客场球队技战术表现与比赛结果的关系进行探究。研究结果:1)主场球队,射正次数、控球率、对方半场的控球率、越位次数、传中次数以及对等拼抢成功率是区分比赛结果的显著性变量;客场球队,射门次数、射正次数、向前传球数、总传球数、攻入35米次数、越位次数以及对等拼抢成功率是区分比赛结果的显著性变量;2)主场球队,射正次数、传中次数和对等拼抢成功率是判别比赛结果的关键指标;客场球队,射正次数、向前传球次数和越位次数是判别比赛结果的关键指标;3)无论是区分还是判别球队比赛结果的技战术指标,主、客场球队均存在较大差异。结论:1)对主场和客场球队,射门质量均是影响其比赛结果的关键;2)对主场球队,过多的传中次数对比赛结果产生消极影响,对等拼抢成功率的增加可以提高比赛获胜的概率;3)对客场球队,向前传球区域会影响比赛胜负,增加在对方防守三区的向前传球次数可以提高比赛获胜的概率。The sample was used corresponded 480 games from 2015 and 2016 season of the Chinese Football Association Super League(CSL).One-way analysis of variance and discriminant analysis model were used to explore the relationship between technique/tactics performance and match result from home teams and away teams accordingly.The results:1)For home teams,the distinguished variable such as the number of shots on target,ball possession,ball possession in opponent half,number of offside,crosses,percent of 50-50 challenges won were the facts that can influence the result of matches;For away teams,the distinguished variable such as the number of shots on target,forward passes,passes,final 1/3 entries,number of offside,percent of 50-50 challenges were the key facts to distinguish the result of the matches.2)For home teams,the key indicators that discriminate between winning,drawing and losing were the number of shots on target,crosses,percent of 50-50 challenges won.For away teams,the key indicators that discriminate between winning,drawing and losing were the number of shots on target,forward passes,offside.3)the home and away teams exist significant difference,no matter to distinguish or to discriminate the result of matches on technique indicators.Conclusion:1)For both the home and away teams,the quality of shots is the key to the match result.2)For home teams,too many crosses have negative impacts on the match result,increasing the rate of percentage of 50-50 challenges won will increase the possibility of winning.3)For away teams,the area of forward passes will affect the match result,increasing the number of forward passes in the third area of opponent teams will increase the possibility of winning the match.

关 键 词：中超联赛 情境变量 技战术表现 比赛结果 判别分析 

分 类 号：G843[文化科学—体育训练]