废弃平台水下结构拆除切割风险分析  

Risk Assessment of Cutting Methods for Underwater Structures Removal of Abandoned Platform

作　　者：闫宏生[1] 石尚熠 刘建成[1] 徐立新 YAN Hongsheng;SHI Shangyi;LIU Jiancheng;XU Lixin(Center for Dismantling Technology of Offshore Structures,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;China Merchants Heavy Industry(Jiangsu)Co.,Ltd.,Nantong 226116,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学海洋结构物拆解技术研究中心,天津300072 [2]招商局重工(江苏)有限公司,江苏南通226116

出　　处：《中国海洋平台》2021年第6期26-30,共5页China offshore Platform

基　　金：工信部高技术船舶科研项目“半潜式起重拆解平台开发”(编号:MC-201710-H01)。

摘　　要：针对平台拆除过程中水下结构拆除的5种切割方式,应用模糊理论和贝叶斯网络相结合的模糊贝叶斯网络方法分别对其进行风险分析。通过风险源识别、分类,建立贝叶斯网络模型;引入模糊理论和相似性聚类方法(Similarity Aggregation Method,SAM),将专家意见转化为根节点事件的先验概率;应用条件概率表和贝叶斯公式得到事故发生概率;反向推理获得后验概率以判别事故致因,进而从不同角度对各种切割方式的风险级别进行对比分析,为决策者选取适当的切割方式提供数据基础。According to the 5 cutting methods of underwater structure removal in the process of platform removal,the fuzzy Bayesian network method based on fuzzy theory and Bayesian network is used to analyze the risk.Through the identification and classification of the risk sources,the Bayesian network model is established;the fuzzy theory and Similarity Aggregation Method(SAM)are introduced to transform expert opinions into a priori probability of root node events;the probability of the accidents is obtained by conditional probability table and Bayesian formula;the posterior probability is obtained by reverse reasoning to identify the causes of accidents,and the risk levels of various cutting methods are compared from different perspectives,which provides data basis for decision-makers to select appropriate cutting methods.

关 键 词：平台拆除 切割 模糊贝叶斯网络 风险分析 

分 类 号：TE58[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]