中国低生育率研究进展:一个文献综述  

Research Progress on Low Fertility Rate in China:A Literature Review

作　　者：张孝栋 张雅璐 贾国平 汤梦君[3] 陈功[1] 张蕾[1] ZHANG Xiao-dong;ZHANG Ya-lu;JIA Guo-ping;TANG Meng-jun;CHEN Gong;ZHANG Lei(Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;United Nations Population Fund;China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871 [2]联合国人口基金 [3]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《人口与发展》2021年第6期9-21,共13页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BRK022);联合国人口基金项目“中国生育政策配套支持措施框架研究”;中国人口与发展研究中心项目“亚洲儒家文化圈部分国家生育支持政策研究”。

摘　　要："七普"数据显示我国总和生育率已经开始步入超低生育率水平行列,表明我国正面临严峻的低生育风险所带来的诸多挑战。通过学术文献梳理,观察到近十年来我国低生育率研究相关文献主要集中于以下三方面:(1)刻画我国生育意愿与生育行为之间的内在逻辑,以及从生育计划调整、女性生命周期、生育观念和性别偏好等方面剖析二者存在错位的深层次原因;(2)从经济、社会、家庭、制度和文化规范五个方面分别诠释我国生育率下降的决定因素及动力机制;(3)以"单独"二孩和"全面二孩"政策为核心,探讨我国旨在提高社会生育水平的举措及政策实施效果。随着"三孩"政策的出台及包容性生育支持体系构建需求的提出,本研究在当前中国"三孩"生育政策调整优化重要关口期,对已有研究成果和政策实践展开了多维反思,并对我国未来积极应对低生育风险应当开展的研究和实践方向进行了探讨。China’s Seventh Population Census Data show that China’s total fertility rate has begun to enter the ranks of ultra-low fertility levels,indicating that the Chinese government is facing many challenges brought about by the severe risk of low fertility.Through academic literature review,this study observed that the literature related to low fertility in China in recent ten years mainly focused on three aspects:(1)Existing literature described the intrinsic logical correlation between fertility intentions and fertility behaviors in China,and further analyzed the deep reasons for the bias between fertility intention and behaviors in terms of changing fertility plans,women’s life cycle,fertility values and gender preferences;(2)Existing literature interpreted the determinants and dynamic mechanism of fertility decline in China from five aspects:economic factors,social factors,family,institutional factors and cultural norms.(3)Existing literature focused on the“separate two-child”and“comprehensive two-child”policies,and explored China’s initiatives to improve fertility levels and the effects of policy implementation.With the implementation of the“three-child”policy and the need to build an inclusive fertility support system,this study reflected on the existing research findings and policy practices at the current critical period of the“three-child”fertility policy adjustment and optimization in China.Finally,this study explored the next directions of research and practice that should be considered to address the risk of low fertility in China.

关 键 词：低生育率 生育意愿 影响因素 “二孩”政策 “三孩”政策 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]