2022年全球经济金融:结构性通货膨胀之剑和央行的挑战  

Global Economy and Finance in 2022: the Sword of Structural Inflation and the Challenges for Central Banks

作　　者：朱民[1] 徐钟祥 巩冰 李长泰 Zhu Min;Xu Zhongxiang;Gong Bing;Li Changtai(National Institute of Financial Research,Tsinghua University;PBC.School of Finance,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学国家金融研究院 [2]清华大学五道口金融学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2021年第12期3-13,共11页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：2020年新冠肺炎疫情的暴发打破了之前全球低通胀的局面。在积极财政政策和宽松货币政策的刺激下,需求持续上升,疫情冲击下的供给严重不足,通货膨胀开始上扬。在疫情冲击和地缘政治扰动下,供应链瓶颈和大宗商品价格波动进一步推动通胀攀升。由于疫情在各国蔓延程度不一致,疫情对不同经济部门冲击不一,以及各国刺激政策的力度和结构不一,全球通胀的上升呈现出在国家之间、产业之间不一致的结构性和不平衡的新格局。这对央行货币政策是一个巨大的挑战。疫情危机后,央行迅速实施宽松货币政策,企稳了资本市场,支持了实体经济复苏,货币政策已经到了从宽松到缓和的拐点,结构性的通货膨胀引发了关于央行是否需要提速加息的热议。讨论的重点是,目前结构性通货膨胀是"暂时的""过渡的"还是"持久的"。通货膨胀是影响2022年全球经济金融最主要的变量,市场高度敏感,历经几次波动,面临巨大挑战。读懂结构性和不平衡通货膨胀及其成因是把握2022年全球经济金融走向的关键。The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 ended the global situation of low inflation that had persisted for years.Stimulated by expansionary fiscal policies and loose monetary policies, demand has continued to rise. Under the impact of the epidemic, there is a serious shortage of supply. As an excessive amount of money starts to chase a far disproportionate amount of goods, high inflation is on the way. Supply chain bottlenecks and the price fluctuations of bulk commodities—as a result of both the pandemic and geopolitical disturbance—have fueled the rise of inflation.This paper compares and analyzes the inflation of different countries and different sectors across the world. Moreover, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the causes of structural inflation around the world, as well as the future direction of inflation and challenges for central banks.The main results of this paper are as follows. The rise in global inflation presents a new pattern of structural inconsistencies and imbalances between and among countries and industries. The global structural inflation has turned out to be long-lasting.This is a huge challenge for central banks’ monetary policy. The uncertainty of global policies poses a huge impact on the global economy and finance.This paper makes the following contributions. It provides a clear picture of current inflation, and sheds light on how the global structural inflation has evolved and what the future direction of inflation is. Moreover, it also points out the challenges and policy uncertainties of the central banks, and helps identify the trends of global economy and finance in 2022.

关 键 词：结构性通货膨胀 美联储 货币政策 

分 类 号：F821.5[经济管理—财政学]