新疆气候水文变化趋势及面临问题思考  

Trend of climate and hydrology change in Xinjiang and its problems thinking

作　　者：姚俊强[1] 陈静 迪丽努尔·托列吾别克 韩雪云[2] 毛炜峄[1] YAO Junqiang;CHEN Jing;Dilinuer Tuoliwubieke;HAN Xueyun;MAO Weiyi(Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Xinjiang Climate Center,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2021年第5期1498-1511,共14页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1903113,42171038);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF202028)资助。

摘　　要：新疆是亚洲中部干旱区的重要组成部分,对全球变化响应异常敏感,水资源问题突出,研究变暖背景下新疆的气候水文变化及面临的问题,对应对和适应未来气候变化及水资源安全具有重要意义。基于最新的气候水文观测资料和相关成果,研究了新疆水文气候要素变化趋势与演变特征,探讨了目前面临的主要问题及对策建议。结果表明:1961—2018年新疆升温幅度高于全球平均水平,冬季升温贡献最大;降水量和降水日数均明显增加,夏季降水增加最显著;21世纪以来气温和降水均在高位波动,但增加幅度减缓,气候有从暖湿化向暖干化转折的迹象,干旱化趋势加剧。21世纪以来,极端最高气温、极端最低气温和高温日数显著增加,高温初日提前,高温终日推迟,极端降水事件、暴雨雪强度和频次明显增加。受气候变化和人类活动共同影响,塔里木河流域源流区径流量明显增加,干流径流量微弱减少;博斯腾湖水位阶段性变化明显,2013年以来逐渐扩张;艾比湖总体萎缩,而山区湖泊赛里木湖面积稳定扩张。新疆气候水文变化面临主要问题包括:对新疆气候变化趋势和物理过程认识不明、水文气象灾害风险加剧难以把控、气候变化影响不确定性加剧,水安全问题迫在眉睫。建议趋利避害,抓住气候机遇,加快生态环境建设;开展气候水文综合科学考察,加强机理研究,构建综合观测协同网络,提高水文气象灾害风险调控能力;将有效应对、有序适应气候变化提升到战略的高度,为建设美丽新疆和高质量发展服务。Xinjiang is an important part of the arid Central Asia,which responds sensitively to the global climate change and has the water resources problem severely.Studying the impact of climate change on water resources in Xinjiang has a significant effect on the adaptability of future climate change and water resource security.Based on the latest climate-hydrological observations and research results,this paper analyzes the characteristics of hydrological and climate change and the impacts of climate change on water resources,and discusses the main problems and countermeasures.Results indicate that:(1)Temperature in Xinjiang had a significant increasing trend during 1961—2018,and the increase rate of temperature was higher than the global average and the winter change could be the most important factor for the rise in annual air temperature.Precipitation and number of pre⁃cipitation days had increased obviously,especially in summer.However,both temperature and precipitation had fluctuated with high level frequency,and the sharp increasing trend had retarded since the 21st century.The cli⁃mate experienced a transformation from warm-wet to warm-dry,with a intensifying drought.(2)The number of extreme maximum temperature,extreme minimum temperature and high temperature days had increased signifi⁃cantly since the beginning of 21st century.The first day of high temperature was brought ahead,the last day of high temperature was postponed,and the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events and rainstorm snow had increased significantly.(3)Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the runoff in sources of the Tarim River basin had increased obviously.The water of the Bosten Lake had expanded since 2013.The Ebinur Lake had shrunk and the Sayram Lake had been expanded steadily.The glaciers had been gen⁃erally retreated with great regional differences,specially in the Tianshan and Altai Mountains.(4)There are main problems of climate and hydrological changes in Xinjiang,such as unclear under

关 键 词：新疆 气候变化 径流 湖泊 水资源 对策建议 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]