气候变化条件下降雨-融水型泥石流流量预测方法  

Discharge prediction method for rainfall-melting water triggered glacial debris flows under climate change scenarios

作　　者：杨宗佶[1] 付校龙 游勇[1] YANG Zongji;FU Xiaolong;YOU Yong(Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS,Chengdu 610041,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《人民长江》2021年第12期34-39,共6页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41771021);四川省重点研发项目(2019YFG0460)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化背景下,目前唯一的冰川泥石流流量经验模型无法定量反映雨热耦合变化的影响。根据度日模型冰雪融水当量和泥石流流量雨洪计算方法,提出了考虑雨热耦合条件下降雨-融水型泥石流流量的计算模型。通过统计51 a降雨和温度观测资料的变化趋势,建立了帕隆藏布流域降雨-融水型泥石流流量计算重现期标准,并通过对典型降雨-融水型泥石流流量的实测资料进行验证,表明该方法准确性相比经验模型明显增加。进一步以帕隆藏布流域15条典型降雨-融水型泥石流为例,开展气候变化条件下泥石流流量的计算和预测。结果显示:该方法可量化雨热耦合条件对泥石流流量的影响,可为气候变化条件下冰川泥石流的防治关键参数计算和预测提供参考依据。Under the background of global warming,current empirical model for the glacial debris flow discharge calculation cannot quantitatively consider the coupling effect of rainfall water and the snow/ice melting water.We proposed a discharge calculation model that considers coupling effect of both rain and melting water for glacial debris flows by studying ice-snow melt equivalent in the improved degree-day model as well as the current storm flood calculation method for rainfall triggered debris flows.The criteria of return period for the glacial debris flows discharge prediction was established based on the rainfall and temperature change trends fitted by the 51 years long period observation data in the Palong Zangbo watershed.Then this proposed model was verified by the observation data of 2 typical glacial debris flows along the Palong Zangbo River,and the accuracy of the proposed method was significantly improved by comparing to the current empirical model.Afterwards,the discharge estimation of 15 glacial debris flow gullies in the Palong Zangbo watershed were analyzed under various climate change scenarios.The results show that the proposed method can quantify the coupling effect of rain-thermal on debris flow and can provide a reference for the calculation and prediction of key parameters for the prevention and control of glacial debris flows.

关 键 词：降雨-融水型泥石流 泥石流流量 度日模型 雨热耦合变化 气候变化 帕隆藏布流域 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]