江西省水资源利用效率时空演变及其影响因素  

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of water resources utilization efficiency in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：吴向东 许新发 成静清 温天福 刘章君 吴佳琪 WU Xiangdong;XU Xinfa;CHENG Jingqing;WEN Tianfu;LIU Zhangjun;WU Jiaqi(Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering,Nanchang 330029,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水利科学院,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《人民长江》2021年第12期92-98,121,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：江西省水利厅科技项目(202124ZDKT05,202124ZDKT20);国家自然科学基金项目(51909112)。

摘　　要：提高水资源利用效率是解决区域用水矛盾和水污染的有效途径,对推动水资源节约集约利用具有重要意义。利用非期望产出超效率SBM模型,测度了江西省11个地级市2010~2018年水资源利用效率,分析了其时空演变特征;并运用Tobit模型,分析了影响水资源利用效率的主要因素。结果表明:①江西省城市水资源利用效率整体呈波动上升趋势,由2010年的0.800波动上升至2018年的0.813;②各地市水资源利用效率差异明显,南昌市、鹰潭市、新余市水资源利用效率大于1.00,吉安市、宜春市、景德镇市水资源利用效率偏低,景德镇市效率最不稳定;③环境约束力、经济发展水平对水资源利用效率提升具有显著正向促进作用,水资源禀赋高、第一产业比重增加、城镇化建设则抑制水资源利用效率的提升。根据研究结果,建议江西省应根据各地经济发展实际情况有针对性地制定水资源管理政策,严格监测环境污染物的排放。Improving the water resources utilization efficiency is an effective way to solve the contradiction of regional water use and water pollution,and it is important in promoting the economical and intensive use of water resources.This paper employed super SBM(slacks-based measure)of unexpected output to calculate the utilization efficiency for 11 cities water resources in Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2018,and analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics.Tobit regression model was used to analyze the main factors of water resources utilization efficiency.The results showed that:①the overall utilization efficiency of urban water resources in Jiangxi Province was fluctuating and rising.The average value of efficiency increased from 0.800 in 2010 to 0.813 in 2018.②There were obvious differences in the utilization efficiency of water resources among cities.The utilization efficiency of water resources in Nanchang City,Yingtan City and Xinyu City was larger than 1.000;the utilization efficiency of water resources in Ji an City,Yichun City and Jingdezhen City was relatively low,the utilization efficiency of water resources in Jingdezhen City was unstable.③Environmental constraints,economic development level had positive effects on the improvement of water resources utilization efficiency,water resource endowment,proportion of primary industry increased and urbanization construction were not conducive to the improvement of water resource utilization efficiency.It is suggested to formulate water resources management policies according to the level of economic development of each city in Jiangxi Province,and strictly monitor the discharge of environmental pollutants.

关 键 词：水资源利用效率 时空演变 非期望产出 超效率SBM模型 TOBIT回归 江西省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]