致密油产量递减分析新组合方法研究——以玛湖致密油藏为例  

Research on a new combination method of production decline analysis for tight oil:Cases study of Mahu tight reservoir

作　　者：刘文锋[1] 张旭阳[1] 盛舒遥 汪康 段永刚[2] 魏明强[2] LIU Wenfeng;ZHANG Xuyang;SHENG Shuyao;WANG Kang;DUAN Yonggang;WEI Mingqiang(Baikouquan Oil Production Plant,PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company,Karamay,Xinjiang 834000,China;School of Petroleum Engineering,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油新疆油田分公司百口泉采油厂,新疆克拉玛依834000 [2]西南石油大学石油工程学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《油气藏评价与开发》2021年第6期911-916,共6页Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development

基　　金：国家科技重大专项“砂砾岩致密油示范区有利储层优选及建模”(2017ZX05070-01);中国石油重大科技专项“新疆油田和吐哈油田勘探开发关键技术研究与应用”(2017E-04)。

摘　　要：玛湖致密油藏储层非均质性强,油井产能差异大、递减特征差异明显,产量递减分析及预测对油井生产制度管理以及油田开发方案的编制与优化具有重要指导意义,也是油藏动态分析的重要内容之一。然而现如今使用的Arps双曲递减、幂律指数递减、Valkó扩展指数递减以及Duong递减等传统经验递减模型具有不同适用性,采用这些方法对玛湖致密油藏压裂水平井生产数据进行拟合,精确度较低。为此,根据玛湖区块油井不同阶段拟合情况,探索了一种分阶段选择不同模型进行拟合的“组合新方法”,并在该区块进行了实例应用验证。研究结果表明:该“组合新方法”较传统经验递减单方法误差率低、吻合度高,且使用此方法对玛湖致密油井进行最终可采储量(EUR)预测的结果也较为准确,方法可行性强,对其他类似致密油藏单井产量递减规律研究及产能预测具有一定的借鉴作用。In the tight reservoir like mahu with strong heterogeneity,large differences in the productivity of oil wells and obvious differences in the decline characteristics,the production decline analysis and prediction have important guiding significance to the management of oil well production system and the preparation and optimization of oil field development plan,and are also an important part of reservoir performance analysis.However,the traditional empirical decline models used today,such as the Arps production decline model,power law exponential decline model,Valkóextended exponential decline model,and Duong decline model,have different applicability.When using these methods to fit the production data of the fractured horizontal wells in the Mahu tight reservoir,the accuracy of the fitted results is low.Therefore,a new method of combination that uses different models for fitting in stages based on the model fitting results of Mahu oil wells in different stages is explored,and the examples are applied to verify it in this block.The research results show that this new method has lower error rate and higher degree of agreement than the traditional ones.In addition,by using this method,the prediction results of Estimated Ultimate Recovery(EUR)for the tight oil wells in Mahu reservoir are more accurate,and the method is highly feasible,which can be used as a reference for the research on the production decline law and the productivity prediction of other similar tight oil reservoirs.

关 键 词：产量递减 经验递减模型 组合模型 最终可采储量 致密油藏 玛湖 

分 类 号：TE348[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]