基于博弈论-云模型的软岩隧道大变形风险评估  

Assessment of Large Deformation Risk in Soft Rock Tunnels Based on Game Theory-Cloud Model

作　　者：何乐平[1] 徐应东 胡启军[1] 蔡其杰 HE Leping;XU Yingdong;HU Qijun;CAI Qijie(School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500;School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院,成都610500 [2]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都610031

出　　处：《现代隧道技术》2021年第6期85-94,共10页Modern Tunnelling Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51574201);四川省教育厅科研创新团队项目(18TD0014);四川省科技厅杰出青年科技人才项目(2019JDJQ0037).

摘　　要：软岩隧道在地质、水文、施工等因素共同作用下易出现明显的大变形特征。目前,软岩隧道大变形机理与支护结构优化方面的研究已初具规模,而大变形灾害风险评估与管控等研究仍处于起步阶段,在软岩隧道大变形风险评估中,一是缺乏系统的大变形风险评价指标体系,二是其风险评价指标具有随机性和模糊性的特点。文章在综合分析软岩隧道大变形风险影响因素的基础上,提出了15项评价指标和相应的分级标准,将软岩隧道大变形风险分为4级,结合标准化过程和G1-CRITIC,通过博弈论思想优化所得的主客观权重,提出了一种新的云模型综合风险评价方法。最后,将所提出的多因素综合风险评价方法应用于乐西高速公路大凉山1号隧道的大变形风险评价,考核结果与现场施工情况基本一致,为软岩隧道围岩稳定性量化评估提供了一条新的思路。It is easy for soft rock tunnels to have obvious large deformation characteristics under the combined action of geology,hydrology,engineering and other factors.At present,the studies have begun to take shape in terms of the mechanism of large deformation and the optimization of support structures in soft rock tunnels,while the studies on risk assessment and control of large deformation disasters are still in its infancy.Regarding the risk assessment of large deformation in soft rock tunnels,there is no systematic risk assessment index system on one hand and the risk assessment indices are random and fuzzy on the other hand.Based on comprehensive analysis of influence factors of large deformation risks in soft rock tunnels,15 evaluation indices and corresponding classification standards are proposed in this paper,so that the large deformation risks in soft rock tunnels are divided into four levels.Then,in combination with the standardization process and G1-CRITIC method,the subjective and objective weights are obtained by ideological optimization based on of the game theory,and a new cloud model-based comprehensive risk assessment method is put forward.Finally,the proposed multi-factor comprehensive risk assessment method is applied to assessment of the large deformation risks in Daliangshan No.1 tunnel on Leshan-Xichang expressway,of which the assessment results are basically consistent with the field construction situation,providing a new idea for quantitative evaluation of surrounding rock stability in soft rock tunnels.

关 键 词：软岩隧道 博弈论 组合赋权 云模型 大变形 风险评估 

分 类 号：U458[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]