基于BBN的重大工程项目复杂性仿真分析  

Using Bayesian belief network to simulate complexity of mega projects

作　　者：罗岚[1] 石晓萍 孙梦 LUO Lan;SHI Xiaoping;SUN Meng(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学建筑工程学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《南昌大学学报（工科版）》2021年第4期360-366,共7页Journal of Nanchang University(Engineering & Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71901113,72061025,71640012);南昌大学创新学分科研训练项目(4827)。

摘　　要：基于文献综述,从组织复杂性、任务复杂性、技术复杂性,环境复杂性、制度复杂性、社会复杂性6个层次提取出29个重大工程项目复杂性影响因素。基于5位重大工程项目领域专家意见构建复杂性贝叶斯信念网络(BBN)模型,运用GeNIe学习推理功能,确定了影响重大工程项目复杂性的关键敏感因素和最大影响链,从而为重大工程管理者降解复杂性提供决策建议及相关分析。研究结果表明工程的制度背景的差异性有43%的严重影响概率,利益关系复杂程度有45%的严重影响概率,技术多样性有44%的严重影响概率,对重大工程复杂性的影响程度最为严重。重大工程管理者应更加关注这些方面,从而加强对重大工程项目复杂性的认识,并提前准备好相关措施。Based on the literature review,29 complexity influencing factors of mega projects were extracted from six levels organizational complexity,task complexity,technical complexity,environmental complexity,institutional complexity,and social complexity.A complexity Bayesian belief network(BBN)model was constructed based on the opinions of five experts in the field of major engineering projects,and then the key sensitive factors and the maximum influence chain affecting the complexity of mega projects were identified using the GeNIe inference function,which provided decision recommendations and relevant analysis for key managers to reduce complexity.The results of the study indicated that the difference of engineering system background has a serious impact probability of 43%,the complexity of interest relationship has a serious impact probability of 45%,and the technical diversity has a serious impact probability of 44%,which has the most serious impact on the complexity of mega projects.Major project managers should pay more attention to these aspects,so as to enhance their understanding of the complexity of mega projects and prepare relevant measures in advance.

关 键 词：重大工程项目复杂性 贝叶斯信念网络 敏感性分析 影响链分析 

分 类 号：TU712.1[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]