基于积分回归的花生产量气候影响因子研究  

Study on Climate Influencing Factors of Peanut Yield Based on Integral Regression

作　　者：彭丽英 麦宗鉴 王华[2] 武君 黎坚 李英[3] Peng Liying;Mai Zongjian;Wang Hua;Wu Jun;Li Jian;Li Ying(Maoming Meteorological Bureau,Maoming 525000;Climate Center of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 525100;Huazhou Meteorological Bureau,Huazhou 525100)

机构地区：[1]茂名市气象局,茂名525000 [2]广东省气候中心,广州510080 [3]化州市气象局,化州525100

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第6期49-51,75,共4页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：茂名市气象局气象科学技术研究项目(201503)。

摘　　要：采用正交多项式法对茂名化州市春花生实际产量系列进行模拟,分离出时间趋势产量和气候产量项,用春花生平均气候产量与花生生育期各生物时段的平均气温、日照时数、降水量进行积分回归分析。得出结论:平均气温在播种前期、荚果成熟期对春花生产量成正效应,尤其是在6月正效应显著;平均气温在幼苗期、开花结荚期对春花生产量成负效应。日照时数在播种前期、荚果成熟期对春花生产量成正效应,特别是在2月上旬正效应显著;日照时数在幼苗期、开花结荚期前期对春花生产量成负效应。降水量在开花结荚期后期对春花生产量成负效应。Using orthogonal polynomials to simulate the actual production series of spring peanut in Huazhou,Maoming.Separate time trend yield and climate yield.An integral regression analysis is made between the average climate yield of spring peanut and average temperature,sunshine hours and precipitation in each biological period of peanut growth period.And we come to the conclusions:The average temperature has a positive effect on spring peanut production in the early stage of sowing and the mature stage of pods,especially in June.It has a negative effect in seeding stage,flowering and podding stage.The positive effect of sunshine hours is obvious in the first ten days of February.And it has negative effect in seeding stage,the early stage of flowering and pod setting.The negative effect of precipitation in the late stage of flowering and pod setting.

关 键 词：积分回归 春花生 产量 气候影响因子 化州市 

分 类 号：S565.2[农业科学—作物学] S162.54