经济政策不确定性对居民消费的影响效应及作用机制——基于中国家庭调查(CFPS)数据  

The Effect and Mechanism of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Resident Consumption: Based on CFPS Data

作　　者：李成[1] 于海东 LI Cheng;YU Hai-dong(School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2021年第6期31-50,共20页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY193)。

摘　　要：构建包含经济政策不确定性的居民最优消费决策模型,运用经济政策不确定性指数和中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从微观层面验证经济政策不确定性对居民消费的影响效应和作用机制。研究发现:(1)经济政策不确定性对居民消费具有显著负向影响,但不同种类的政策其不确定性影响有差异,其中财政政策不确定性的影响最大,货币政策和贸易政策次之,汇率政策最弱;(2)经济政策不确定性通过预防性储蓄渠道对居民消费产生负向影响,其中保险保障不完善、家庭抚养比较高、城乡属性为农村等高预防性储蓄动机的居民,其消费受经济政策不确定性的负面影响最大;(3)经济政策不确定性通过财富效应渠道对居民消费产生负向影响,其中拥有房产价值较高和财产性收入占比较高即具有高财富效应的居民,其消费受经济政策不确定性的负面影响最大。因此,应重视经济政策的连续性、稳定性和可预见性,以避免经济政策的不确定性削弱政策自身的调控效力。A resident optimal consumption decision model embodying economic policy uncertainty being constructed, this paper employs economic policy uncertainty index and China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) data to verify the impact and mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on household consumption from micro levels. It is found that economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on household consumption, but the impact of different types of policy uncertainty is different;among them, the negative impact of fiscal policy uncertainty is the strongest, followed by the impact of monetary policy uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty, and the impact of exchange rate policy uncertainty is the weakest. It is also found that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on resident consumption through preventive savings channels;for those with high preventive saving motivation such as imperfect insurance protection, high family support ratio or rural registered residence, resident consumption is most greatly affected by the economic policy uncertainty. Finally, economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on resident consumption through the wealth effect channel;for those with high wealth effects such as higher real estate value and higher property income, resident consumption is most greatly affected by the economic policy uncertainty. Therefore, policy decision authorities should pay attention to the continuity, stability, and predictability of economic policies, and avoid economic policy uncertainty that weakens the effectiveness of the policy itself.

关 键 词：经济政策 经济政策不确定性 居民消费 居民消费支出 消费决策 预防性储蓄 财富效应 

分 类 号：F019.6[经济管理—政治经济学] F063.2