武汉市社区老年人日常生活能力预测模型研究  

Prediction model of activities of daily living ability among the community elderly in Wuhan

作　　者：艾亚婷[1] 胡慧[1] 王云翠[1] 王凌[1] 高小莲[1] 王再超[1] 陈芳[1] 任海蓉[1] Ai Yating;Hu Hui;Wang Yuncui;Wang Ling;Gao Xiaolian;Wang Zaichao;Chen Fang;Ren Hairong(School of Nursing,Hubei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Wuhan 430065,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北中医药大学,湖北武汉430065

出　　处：《护理学杂志》2021年第24期94-97,共4页Journal of Nursing Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(81973921);湖北中医药大学中医药传承创新计划项目(2021-7)。

摘　　要：目的了解武汉市社区老年人日常生活能力(ADL)现状及相关因素并建立验证预测模型。方法采用多阶段整群抽样方法,选取武汉市13个社区的822名60岁以上老年人作为研究对象进行问卷调查,并对一般人口学资料、ADL等资料进行统计分析,用Logistic回归建模,绘制该模型预测ADL的ROC曲线,以AUC评价该模型的判别区分度。结果武汉市社区老年人ADL受损发生率约10.58%,ADL受损组(n=187)和正常组(n=635)年龄、婚姻、工作、文化程度、主诉记忆下降及兴趣爱好比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05,P<0.01);Logistic回归分析显示,增龄和记忆下降使ADL受损的风险增加(P<0.05,P<0.01),高文化程度、≥2种兴趣爱好使ADL受损的风险下降(均P<0.01);ROC曲线下面积为0.742(P<0.01),提示预测模型区分度较好,Hosmer-Lemeshow检验(P>0.05),提示预测模型有较好的校准度。结论武汉市社区老年人ADL受损程度处于中等水平,预测模型具有较好的预测价值;应积极采取措施预防75岁以上、文化程度低、有记忆下降、兴趣爱好少的老年人ADL下降,促进健康老龄化。Objective To understand the status and influencing factors of Activity of Daily Living(ADL) ability among the elderly in Wuhan community, and to establish ADL prediction model. Methods Multi-stage cluster sampling method was utilized to select and investigate 822 older adults aged 60 and over from 13 communities in Wuhan. The sociodemographic data and ADL were analyzed statistically. The model was established using binary Logistic regression, the ROC curve of the model was drawn, and the discrimination of the model was evaluated by AUC.Results The ADL damage rate of the community elderly in Wuhan was about 10.58%, and there were significant differences in age, marital status, work, educational background, main complaint memory decline and hobbies between ADL impaired group(n=187) and ADL normal group(n=635)(P<0.05, P<0.01). Logistic regression analysis showed that, older age and memory decline increased the risk of ADL impairment(P<0.05, P<0.01), while higher educational background and 2 or more hobbies decreased the risk(P< 0.01 for both). The area under ROC curve was 0.742(P<0.01), indicating the discrimination of prediction model was good, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test result(P>0.05) indicated the prediction model had a good calibration. Conclusion The ADL impairment of the elderly in Wuhan is in a medium level, and the prediction model has good prediction value. Measures should be taken to prevent ADL decline for those elderly people over 75 years old, with lower educational background and memory decline and less hobbies, so as to promote healthy aging.

关 键 词：老年人 社区 日常生活能力 预测模型 ROC曲线 

分 类 号：R473.2[医药卫生—护理学]